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Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Shocks — How Far the Tremor Travels

QQQ, XLK, SPY, and defensives reacting to FAANG / NVDA / Meta earnings surprises

When a single mega-cap tech name blows out earnings, QQQ and XLK move together as expected — but SPY holders often misjudge the size of the spillover. We took 7 historical extreme prints and sized the contagion for you.

7 historical samples
Data updated 2025-01-27
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+1.29%
range -3.5% / +3.9% · n=7
+2.46%
range -4.5% / +5.6% · n=7
+2.75%
range -7.6% / +7.5% · n=7
XLK Technology
+3.03%
range -4.0% / +5.7% · n=7
+2.91%
range -4.8% / +6.7% · n=7
+3.66%
range -9.0% / +8.8% · n=7
SPY S&P 500
+1.49%
range -1.8% / +2.2% · n=7
+0.81%
range -1.7% / +3.8% · n=7
+4.43%
range -4.7% / +5.7% · n=7
XLC Communication Services
+0.93%
range -3.6% / +1.7% · n=7
+1.58%
range -4.1% / +3.9% · n=7
-0.74%
range -4.9% / +5.7% · n=7
VIXY VIX Futures
-3.80%
range -6.0% / +9.3% · n=7
-7.39%
range -14.3% / +4.3% · n=7
-7.35%
range -24.3% / +27.5% · n=7
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.21%
range -0.8% / +1.3% · n=7
+0.43%
range -0.6% / +1.8% · n=7
+2.34%
range -0.2% / +6.8% · n=7
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.18%
range -0.4% / +1.1% · n=7
+1.72%
range -1.5% / +3.0% · n=7
+0.71%
range -1.9% / +9.4% · n=7
GLD Gold
-0.10%
range -1.5% / +0.8% · n=7
+1.43%
range -0.8% / +3.8% · n=7
+3.62%
range -2.0% / +11.4% · n=7
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+1.29%
-3.5 / +3.9
T+5
+2.46%
-4.5 / +5.6
T+30
+2.75%
-7.6 / +7.5
XLK Technology
T+1
+3.03%
-4.0 / +5.7
T+5
+2.91%
-4.8 / +6.7
T+30
+3.66%
-9.0 / +8.8
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+1.49%
-1.8 / +2.2
T+5
+0.81%
-1.7 / +3.8
T+30
+4.43%
-4.7 / +5.7
XLC Communication Services
T+1
+0.93%
-3.6 / +1.7
T+5
+1.58%
-4.1 / +3.9
T+30
-0.74%
-4.9 / +5.7
VIXY VIX Futures
T+1
-3.80%
-6.0 / +9.3
T+5
-7.39%
-14.3 / +4.3
T+30
-7.35%
-24.3 / +27.5
XLP Consumer Staples
T+1
-0.21%
-0.8 / +1.3
T+5
+0.43%
-0.6 / +1.8
T+30
+2.34%
-0.2 / +6.8
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
-0.18%
-0.4 / +1.1
T+5
+1.72%
-1.5 / +3.0
T+30
+0.71%
-1.9 / +9.4
GLD Gold
T+1
-0.10%
-1.5 / +0.8
T+5
+1.43%
-0.8 / +3.8
T+30
+3.62%
-2.0 / +11.4

✓ Live example · Most recent event

DeepSeek 冲击 NVDA -17%，AI 估值重构 (2025-01-27) after QQQ — real close prices for
Event day 2025-01-27 QQQ closed at $510.97 30 calendar days later 2025-03-13 closed at $465.39 Math: ($465.39 ÷ $510.97) − 1 = -8.92%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("QQQ", start="2025-01-27", end="2025-03-13") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2025-01-27
DeepSeek 冲击 NVDA -17%，AI 估值重构 Source →
2024-07-23
Alphabet 大增 AI capex，市场担忧 ROI Source →
2024-02-21
NVDA 再次远超预期，AI 主题强化 Source →
2023-05-24
NVDA AI 指引爆表，单日 +24% Source →
2022-10-26
Meta 财报疲软 + Reality Labs 巨亏，-25% Source →
2020-07-30
Apple 财报超预期 + 4-for-1 拆股公告 Source →
2018-07-26
Facebook 财报疲软，单日 -19% (科技股回调) Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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