AA (AA)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral rule-based

AA has no clear signal.

Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

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RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Neutral
Trailing P/E
10.4
5-yr percentile: 37%
P/B
1.8
5-yr percentile: 79%
p10
7.6
p25
8.7
p50
13.6
p75
20.9
p90
32.9

Alcoa is fairly valued on a trailing basis with its P/E near the historical median, but the low 6.6x forward P/E already bakes in the anticipated earnings decline, leaving minimal margin of safety. The concurrent -23% earnings contraction and revenue shrinkage suggest no growth is priced in here, just a cyclical trough. The biggest risk is that the downturn deepens, making even the depressed forward multiple too high.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

Using Cyclical P/E USD 50.17 Confidence low
PB medium
USD 18.77
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)
PSR medium
USD 7.08
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
CYCLICAL PE medium
USD 55.26
PE reverts to historical 30th-percentile (cyclicals; 30th not 5th to avoid trough-bias)
Energy/materials cyclical — uses 30th-pct PE to avoid trough-bias

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 50.0% HV (30D) 50.0% IV RANK (1Y) 33 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

AA
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-1.34%
Avg Day%
-1.71%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-10-15
in 67d
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
26-07
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-07-16 AMC 2.12 -3.2% -0.68% -6.13% -5.57%
2026-04-16 AMC 1.40 -9.6% -7.62% -6.80% -6.25%
2026-01-22 AMC 1.26 +24.7% -3.72% -1.47% -10.03%
2025-10-22 AMC -0.02 +63.0% +5.71% +12.59% +3.11%
2025-07-16 AMC 0.39 +1.1% +1.96% +2.91% +11.55%
2025-04-16 AMC 2.15 +52.9% -5.07% -6.98% +2.55%
2025-01-22 AMC 1.04 +2.8% -3.04% -3.69% -8.38%
2024-10-16 AMC 0.57 +92.2% +1.74% -4.09% -0.12%

Is AA (AA) overvalued right now?

AA (AA) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 10.4, sitting at the 37th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

AA (AA) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on AA (AA) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

AA (AA) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on AA (AA), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

AA (AA) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on AA (AA) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does AA show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show AA's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's AA page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.