ADP (ADP)
ADP screens as AVOID because despite a deeply cheap valuation based on PE percentile, the price stands 92.6% above a low-confidence single floor that is heavily distorted by dividend-regime and method
- The PE percentile of 5.6 is extremely low (validation green), but the valuation floor calculation actually yields a price ABOVE the current $225.31 — meaning that floor is a potential rally target, not a safety net.
- The stock trades at $225.31, a 92.6% premium over the only computed floor of $116.97 (from the engine's EPV method), yet floor confidence is 'low' and three distinct warnings flag regime shifts or inverted calculations for alternative dividend and valuation floors.
- No red alerts are present, but the buyzone is 'far' and the overall setup lacks the structural support needed to justify a BUY — the extreme low valuation is contradicted by the floor's fragility.
BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal
ADP is far above the floor (~92.6% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation cheap (6th percentile)
RULES & ALERTS FIRING
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VALUATION
ADP is fairly valued based on its trailing P/E at the 0th historical percentile, indicating it's at its cheapest relative to the past decade. The 12% earnings growth is moderately priced in, as reflected by a PEG ratio of 1.46. The biggest risk is sustained multiple compression if its growth rate fails to re-accelerate toward its historical premium.
Floor Engine
method skipped: dividend grew past historical regime (forward div 6.80 vs early 3y median implied div 2.31, ratio 2.94). Historical p95 yield was set when dividend was lower; fwd_div / p95_yield mixes regimes.
method skipped: stock is already pricing CHEAPER than its 5-year extreme — current PE 18.5× vs historical 5th-pct 21.2×. The PE-percentile formula gives 21.2× × EPS = 258.92, which is ABOVE the current price 225.31, making it a mean-reversion target (where the stock could rally TO), not a downside floor (where buyers would step in).
YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT
○ anonymous· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price
· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds
· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Earnings Reactions
| Date | Time | EPS | Surprise | Gap% | Day% | Week% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | BMO | 3.37 | +2.3% | +4.32% | +7.98% | +4.03% |
| 2026-01-28 | BMO | 2.62 | +2.0% | -1.91% | -1.50% | -7.80% |
| 2025-10-29 | BMO | 2.49 | +1.9% | -3.03% | -6.58% | -7.17% |
| 2025-07-30 | BMO | 2.26 | +1.5% | -3.02% | +0.75% | -2.27% |
| 2025-04-30 | BMO | 3.06 | +2.9% | -1.70% | +1.63% | +3.18% |
| 2025-01-29 | BMO | 2.35 | +2.4% | +1.95% | +0.76% | +3.30% |
| 2024-10-30 | BMO | 2.33 | +5.3% | -0.61% | +1.68% | +5.98% |
| 2024-07-31 | BMO | 2.09 | +1.4% | +0.92% | +1.89% | +0.45% |
Is ADP (ADP) overvalued right now?
ADP (ADP) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 21.0, sitting at the 6th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.
ADP (ADP) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?
Selling cash-secured puts on ADP (ADP) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.
ADP (ADP) — which option strategy fits your view?
If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on ADP (ADP), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.
ADP (ADP) — is now a good entry?
Entry timing on ADP (ADP) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.
FAQ
Why does ADP show different P/E numbers on different sites?
Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.
Does this page show ADP's implied volatility?
Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.
How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's ADP page?
Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.