ADP (ADP)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Watch

ADP is a WATCH item because it is cheap on both valuation and floor metrics, but a very large distance from its buy zone means no immediate entry signal.

  • PE percentile is 15.7 (cheap) and the floor discount is about 2.1 % ($4.98 below the $241.37 price), suggesting downside support is nearby.
  • Distance to the buy zone is extreme at 106.3 %, meaning the stock is far from a typical re-entry trigger even though valuation is attractive.
  • A validation flag of green and zero red alerts support the fundamental safety, but the far buy zone keeps it in a watching stance.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$241.37 $116.97 engine floor
far above at floor

ADP is far above the floor (~106.3% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation cheap (16th percentile)

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Undervalued
Trailing P/E
22.5
5-yr percentile: 16%
P/B
15.2
5-yr percentile: 55%
p10
21.5
p25
24.6
p50
27.0
p75
29.9
p90
31.4

ADP is fairly valued based on its trailing P/E at the 0th historical percentile, indicating it's at its cheapest relative to the past decade. The 12% earnings growth is moderately priced in, as reflected by a PEG ratio of 1.46. The biggest risk is sustained multiple compression if its growth rate fails to re-accelerate toward its historical premium.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

ideal USD 241.37 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 2.06×
DIVIDEND high
USD 226.62
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
VALUATION low
method skipped: stock is already pricing CHEAPER than its 5-year extreme — current PE 19.8× vs historical 5th-pct 20.8×. The PE-percentile formula gives 20.8× × EPS = 254.05, which is ABOVE the current price 241.37, making it a mean-reversion target (where the stock could rally TO), not a downside floor (where buyers would step in).
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 116.97
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 350.92
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PSR medium
USD 177.90
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
High-growth, earnings not yet stable — PSR is the next-best anchor

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 30.6% HV (30D) 32.9% IV RANK (1Y) 71 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

ADP
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.38%
Avg Day%
+0.83%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-29
in 20d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-29 BMO 3.37 +2.3% +4.32% +7.98% +4.03%
2026-01-28 BMO 2.62 +2.0% -1.91% -1.50% -7.80%
2025-10-29 BMO 2.49 +1.9% -3.03% -6.58% -7.17%
2025-07-30 BMO 2.26 +1.5% -3.02% +0.75% -2.27%
2025-04-30 BMO 3.06 +2.9% -1.70% +1.63% +3.18%
2025-01-29 BMO 2.35 +2.4% +1.95% +0.76% +3.30%
2024-10-30 BMO 2.33 +5.3% -0.61% +1.68% +5.98%
2024-07-31 BMO 2.09 +1.4% +0.92% +1.89% +0.45%

Is ADP (ADP) overvalued right now?

ADP (ADP) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 22.5, sitting at the 16th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

ADP (ADP) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on ADP (ADP) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

ADP (ADP) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on ADP (ADP), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

ADP (ADP) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on ADP (ADP) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does ADP show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show ADP's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's ADP page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.