ASML (ASML)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

ASML is rated NEUTRAL because its high valuation is balanced by a strong underlying floor and the absence of risk alerts.

  • The current PE of $54.49 sits at the 92.9th percentile, making the stock appear expensive by earnings-based metrics.
  • Despite the high PE, the current price of $1,520.94 trades only 5.6% above the calculated floor, suggesting limited downside risk.
  • The stock has no active risk alerts, and its implied volatility rank of 96.4% is high, reflecting elevated option premiums but no red-flag warnings.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$1520.94 $269.43 engine floor
far above at floor

ASML is far above the floor (~464.5% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (93th percentile)

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Expensive
Trailing P/E
54.5
5-yr percentile: 93%
P/B
1328.7
5-yr percentile: 94%
p10
41.9
p25
43.5
p50
51.7
p75
56.6
p90
58.7
Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

ideal USD 1520.94 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 5.65×
DIVIDEND high
USD 645.71
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
20y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION low
method skipped: insufficient PE history (9 months, need 60)
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 269.43
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
method skipped: ROIC data not available; falling back to pure EPV.
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 52.5% HV (30D) 51.7% IV RANK (1Y) 96 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

ASML
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-1.47%
Avg Day%
-5.25%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-15
in 63d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-14 AMC 7.15 +8.0% -2.95% -2.41% -4.92%
2026-01-27 AMC 7.34 -2.7% +2.64% -2.18% -7.94%
2025-10-15 BMO 5.49 +2.1% +4.78% +2.71% +2.89%
2025-07-16 BMO 5.90 +12.4% -8.34% -8.33% -12.89%
2025-04-16 BMO 6.00 +3.7% -5.29% -7.06% -1.19%
2025-01-29 BMO 6.84 +1.6% +6.41% +4.29% +8.67%
2024-10-15 BMO 5.28 +8.6% -0.58% -16.26% -17.35%
2024-07-17 BMO 4.01 +8.5% -8.39% -12.74% -18.30%

Is ASML (ASML) overvalued right now?

ASML (ASML) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 54.5, sitting at the 93th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

ASML (ASML) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on ASML (ASML) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

ASML (ASML) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on ASML (ASML), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

ASML (ASML) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on ASML (ASML) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does ASML show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show ASML's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's ASML page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.