ES (ES)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

ES is rated NEUTRAL as it approaches the buy zone but lacks sufficient valuation data to confirm a strong floor.

  • Price is 11.5% above the buy zone and 1.12× the dividend floor of $61.20, which carries low confidence due to insufficient PE history (18 months vs. 60 required).
  • Volatility is neutral (IV rank 32.6%) with no red alerts, indicating no immediate risk-driven urgency.
  • No PE, PB, or PS data are available, so valuation cannot be independently assessed.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$68.27 $61.20 engine floor
far above at floor

ES is approaching the floor (~11.5% above) — wait. Not yet in the action zone, but on the watch list.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 68.27 Confidence low
discount-to-floor: 1.12×
DIVIDEND high
USD 61.20
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
28y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION low
method skipped: insufficient PE history (18 months, need 60)
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV low
method skipped: negative — value depends on growth expectations (EPV < 0 means pv-earnings cannot cover debt)
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
method skipped: Pure EPV unavailable; cannot compute growth-premium layer.
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PB medium
USD 43.43
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 19.8% HV (30D) 20.2% IV RANK (1Y) 33 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

ES
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.38%
Avg Day%
-0.43%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-30
in 78d
24-07
24-11
25-02
25-05
25-07
25-11
26-02
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-06 AMC 1.73 +6.2% -1.21% -2.16%
2026-02-12 AMC 1.12 +6.5% +1.54% +4.32% +6.47%
2025-11-04 AMC 1.19 +3.6% +0.23% -1.23% -0.28%
2025-07-31 AMC 0.96 +0.5% +0.73% -0.83% -1.60%
2025-05-01 AMC 1.50 -0.2% -0.49% -0.42% +6.64%
2025-02-11 AMC 0.20 -79.8% -2.28% -2.83% +3.12%
2024-11-04 AMC 1.13 +4.3% -0.62% -2.10% -4.46%
2024-07-31 AMC 0.95 -1.5% -0.91% +1.79% -0.09%

Is ES (ES) overvalued right now?

Whether ES (ES) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

ES (ES) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on ES (ES) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

ES (ES) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on ES (ES), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

ES (ES) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on ES (ES) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does ES show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show ES's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's ES page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.