HD (HD)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

HD is currently trading far above its estimated floor, earning a NEUTRAL verdict as it lacks compelling undervaluation or obvious downside risk.

  • The price of $317.45 is 106.7% above the buyzone floor, placing it in the 'far' bucket with no valuation extreme flagged.
  • The floor discount of 2.07% is minimal, and all three primary floors (dividend, valuation, EPV) are below the current price, supporting the absence of a strong bargain signal.
  • No red alerts are present, and implied volatility is elevated at 32.89% (high IV rank), suggesting options are expensive but not signaling imminent price stress.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$317.45 $153.57 engine floor
far above at floor

HD is far above the floor (~106.7% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, HD 5d reaction has been net positive +0.3%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 59 up / 38 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +0.2% 12 samples · 5 up / 5 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +0.2% 12 samples · 8 up / 4 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +0.6% 10 samples · 6 up / 3 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +0.2% 10 samples · 4 up / 6 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +1.7% 9 samples · 6 up / 2 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +0.7% 8 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +0.6% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +0.7% 7 samples · 4 up / 1 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d -0.3% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -2.0% 7 samples · 5 up / 1 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +1.2% 6 samples · 4 up / 1 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +0.2% 5 samples · 3 up / 2 down
Vs sector ETF (XLY, 5d)
-3.6pp lagging sector
HD -5.3% Sector benchmark XLY -1.7%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 317.45 Confidence high
discount-to-floor: 2.07×
DIVIDEND high
USD 305.18
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
40y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION high
USD 266.43
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 153.57
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 307.31
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 32.9% HV (30D) 30.7% IV RANK (1Y) 100 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

HD
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.11%
Avg Day%
+0.15%
Up Hit Rate
62%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-05-19
in 6d
24-05
24-08
24-11
25-02
25-05
25-08
25-11
26-02
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-02-24 BMO 2.72 +7.8% +3.21% +1.99% -2.67%
2025-11-18 BMO 3.74 -2.5% -5.04% -6.02% -1.94%
2025-08-19 BMO 4.58 -0.5% +1.60% +3.17% +3.25%
2025-05-20 BMO 3.45 -1.9% +1.84% -0.61% -2.98%
2025-02-25 BMO 3.02 +1.1% +0.67% +2.84% -0.19%
2024-11-12 BMO 3.67 +0.3% +1.46% -1.28% -0.36%
2024-08-13 BMO 4.60 +1.2% -1.14% +1.23% +6.21%
2024-05-14 BMO 3.63 +0.6% -1.73% -0.13% -1.41%

Is HD (HD) overvalued right now?

Whether HD (HD) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

HD (HD) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on HD (HD) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

HD (HD) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on HD (HD), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

HD (HD) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on HD (HD) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does HD show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show HD's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's HD page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.