JNJ (JNJ)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

JNJ is rated NEUTRAL because it trades far above its calculated floor with elevated volatility, offering no clear margin of safety.

  • Current price of $221.43 sits 227.4% above the nearest floor, well outside any buy zone; the floor-suitability verdict is 'ideal' only at much lower levels, not at the current price.
  • Implied volatility (24.06%) ranks at the 100th percentile over its 39-day history, signaling unusually high option premiums that may not reflect a safe entry for long-term holders.
  • No red alerts or risk warnings are present, and the valuation engine lacks sufficient data to assign a verdict, leaving the stock without a clear fundamental catalyst for a bullish or bearish stance.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$221.43 $67.63 engine floor
far above at floor

JNJ is far above the floor (~227.4% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, JNJ 5d reaction has been net positive +0.4%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 50 up / 41 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d -0.5% 12 samples · 4 up / 7 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d -0.5% 12 samples · 5 up / 6 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +2.1% 10 samples · 6 up / 3 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +0.1% 10 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +0.2% 9 samples · 3 up / 3 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d -0.1% 8 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +1.5% 7 samples · 5 up / 0 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d -0.1% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +0.1% 7 samples · 3 up / 4 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +0.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +1.0% 7 samples · 3 up / 2 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +0.4% 6 samples · 2 up / 2 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +2.2% 5 samples · 3 up / 1 down
Vs sector ETF (XLV, 5d)
+0.4pp in line with sector
JNJ -2.3% Sector benchmark XLV -2.7%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 221.43 Confidence high
discount-to-floor: 3.27×
DIVIDEND high
USD 153.48
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
65y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION high
USD 129.14
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 67.63
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 83.83
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PB medium
USD 97.80
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 24.1% HV (30D) 15.7% IV RANK (1Y) 100 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

JNJ
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.34%
Avg Day%
+1.22%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-15
in 63d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-14 BMO 2.70 +0.8% -1.24% +0.90% -4.96%
2026-01-21 BMO 2.46 -0.1% -3.30% -0.09% +4.36%
2025-10-14 BMO 2.80 +1.5% +1.06% -0.03% +0.51%
2025-07-16 BMO 2.77 +3.2% +3.31% +6.19% +8.98%
2025-04-15 BMO 2.77 +7.4% +0.87% -0.48% +0.66%
2025-01-22 BMO 2.04 +1.4% -2.80% -1.94% +2.02%
2024-10-15 BMO 2.42 +9.7% -0.99% +1.55% +1.14%
2024-07-17 BMO 2.82 +4.3% +0.36% +3.69% +3.49%

Is JNJ (JNJ) overvalued right now?

Whether JNJ (JNJ) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

JNJ (JNJ) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on JNJ (JNJ) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

JNJ (JNJ) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on JNJ (JNJ), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

JNJ (JNJ) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on JNJ (JNJ) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does JNJ show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show JNJ's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's JNJ page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.