JPM (JPM)
JPM remains in a NEUTRAL bucket as premium valuations and high implied volatility offset a clean risk profile.
- PE at 14.59 sits at the 90.6th percentile and PB at 2.32 is at the 93.1st percentile, both marking the stock as expensive.
- Implied volatility is ranked high at the 82.8th percentile, adding options cost uncertainty.
- No red alerts or risk alerts are present (validation flag green), but the floor model lacks usable floors, offering no clear downside anchor.
BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal
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Macro context
RULES & ALERTS FIRING
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VALUATION
Floor Engine
Golden USD 223.40 ＝ ATH × (1 − 35%)（同一回撤方法，更浅档位）。
注：下方场景卡片显示的 DIVIDEND/VALUATION/EPV 数字是引擎仍计算了但未采纳的原始候选 — 保留可见以便审视引擎判断。
Glossary (click to expand)
- Forward P/E
- P/E using analysts' next-12-month EPS estimates. More forward-looking than trailing P/E, but exposed to forecast error.
- Trailing P/E
- P/E using actual EPS from the last 12 months. Distorted by one-time events (asset sales, impairments) until they roll out of the window.
- P/B (Price-to-Book)
- Stock price / book value per share. Meaningful for asset-driven sectors (banks, insurers); high values are normal for asset-light sectors (tech, consumer).
- PEG
- P/E ÷ earnings growth rate — \"how much P/E you pay per 1% of growth\". <1 = cheap-ish, >2 = priced-in.
- Regime-mismatch drawdown model
- When P/E distribution undergoes a structural shift (business transformation, sector re-rating), traditional \"revert to historical P/E percentile\" misleads. This model uses historical max drawdown × current EPS instead.
- EPV (Earnings Power Value)
- Greenwald framework: assume zero growth + current earning power is sustainable. Yields a conservative lower bound (asset + franchise value).
- Heuristic Fallback
- Backup estimator used when the primary method (P/E percentile, yield reversion, etc.) is unreliable due to data issues. **Lower confidence** — reference only, not auto-execute.
- Confidence
- Primary method applicable → high; multiple methods agree → medium; single heuristic fallback → low. Low confidence means review before acting.
YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT
○ anonymous· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price
· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds
· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Earnings Reactions
| Date | Time | EPS | Surprise | Gap% | Day% | Week% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | BMO | 5.94 | +7.8% | -1.23% | -0.82% | -0.22% |
| 2026-01-13 | BMO | 4.63 | -3.9% | -0.06% | -4.19% | -6.92% |
| 2025-10-14 | BMO | 5.07 | +4.0% | -0.69% | -1.91% | -3.53% |
| 2025-07-15 | BMO | 4.96 | +10.6% | -0.24% | -0.74% | +0.95% |
| 2025-04-11 | BMO | 5.07 | +9.2% | -0.35% | +4.00% | +0.83% |
| 2025-01-15 | BMO | 4.81 | +19.2% | +1.18% | +1.97% | +7.47% |
| 2024-10-11 | BMO | 4.37 | +9.6% | +1.33% | +4.44% | +5.89% |
| 2024-07-12 | BMO | 6.12 | +20.2% | -1.66% | -1.21% | +1.12% |
Is JPM (JPM) overvalued right now?
JPM (JPM) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 14.6, sitting at the 91th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.
JPM (JPM) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?
Selling cash-secured puts on JPM (JPM) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.
JPM (JPM) — which option strategy fits your view?
If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on JPM (JPM), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.
JPM (JPM) — is now a good entry?
Entry timing on JPM (JPM) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.
FAQ
Why does JPM show different P/E numbers on different sites?
Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.
Does this page show JPM's implied volatility?
Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.
How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's JPM page?
Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.