KMB (KMB)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Avoid

KMB is tagged AVOID because while valuation appears cheap on a percentile basis, the stock trades 106% above its only usable floor, making the entry unattractive.

  • PE of $18.10 sits at the 22.9th percentile and the earnings-based verdict is 'cheap', but the floor model finds only one valid support at $46.47 — the EPV floor — and the current price of $95.75 is 106% above that level.
  • Dividend and valuation floors were rejected as upside targets rather than downside supports: the dividend yield (5.35%) already exceeds its 5‑year 95th percentile (5.01%), implying a normalized price of $102.09, while the PE‑based recovery target of $110.57 is also above the current price.
  • Despite a 'green' validation flag and zero red alerts, the buyzone distance of 106% confirms the stock is far from any actionable floor, supporting the AVOID verdict.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$95.75 $46.47 engine floor
far above at floor

KMB is far above the floor (~106.1% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation cheap (23th percentile)

Macro context

Across past macro events, KMB 5d reaction has been net positive +0.2%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 56 up / 39 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d -0.2% 12 samples · 5 up / 6 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +0.6% 12 samples · 7 up / 3 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +0.2% 10 samples · 4 up / 5 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +0.8% 10 samples · 6 up / 3 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +0.1% 9 samples · 4 up / 3 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +1.2% 8 samples · 5 up / 3 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +2.1% 7 samples · 5 up / 2 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +0.0% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +0.3% 7 samples · 6 up / 1 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +0.0% 7 samples · 5 up / 2 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d -0.1% 7 samples · 3 up / 2 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d -0.2% 6 samples · 2 up / 3 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d -3.0% 5 samples · 1 up / 3 down
Vs sector ETF (XLP, 5d)
-0.2pp in line with sector
KMB -0.3% Sector benchmark XLP -0.1%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Undervalued
🔥 Extreme-low valuation flag — historical bands suggest this ticker is unusually cheap relative to its own 5-year range.
Trailing P/E
18.1
5-yr percentile: 23%
P/B
21.6
5-yr percentile: 0%
p10
15.1
p25
16.2
p50
18.2
p75
20.7
p90
22.1

KMB appears cheap on a forward basis, with a Forward P/E of 12.9x and PEG of 1.17 supporting fair value relative to 11% earnings growth, but the Trailing P/E at the 23rd percentile highlights current undervaluation against historical norms. The market is not pricing in growth, as the low Forward P/E and PEG near 1 suggest a margin of safety if earnings materialize. The biggest risk is the -1% revenue decline, which could erode earnings growth and undermine the cheap valuation if top-line pressures persist.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

ideal USD 95.75 Confidence low
discount-to-floor: 2.06×
DIVIDEND low
method skipped: stock yield is already MORE EXTREME than its 5-year peak — current 5.35% vs historical 95th-pct 5.01%. The yield-percentile formula gives fwd_div / p95_yield = 102.09, which is ABOVE the current price 95.75, making it a mean-reversion target (price the yield would imply if normalized), not a downside floor.
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
VALUATION low
method skipped: stock is already pricing CHEAPER than its 5-year extreme — current PE 12.6× vs historical 5th-pct 14.6×. The PE-percentile formula gives 14.6× × EPS = 110.57, which is ABOVE the current price 95.75, making it a mean-reversion target (where the stock could rally TO), not a downside floor (where buyers would step in).
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 46.47
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
5y ROIC 21% (>15%) + EPS CV 0.27 (<0.3) — high-ROIC stable, EPV franchise-value anchor applies
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 83.58
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PB medium
USD 86.43
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 31.8% HV (30D) 27.4% IV RANK (1Y) 86 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

KMB
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.04%
Avg Day%
-0.72%
Up Hit Rate
62%
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-08
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-28 BMO 1.97 +2.2% +1.26% +0.19% -1.07%
2026-01-27 BMO 1.86 +2.7% +1.34% -0.49% -0.37%
2025-10-30 BMO 1.82 +3.9% +3.41% +2.99% -13.67%
2025-08-01 BMO 1.92 +16.0% +6.48% +4.83% +9.26%
2025-04-22 BMO 1.93 +2.0% -4.99% -1.53% -6.80%
2025-01-28 BMO 1.34 -16.9% +0.14% -1.50% -1.61%
2024-10-22 BMO 1.83 +7.2% -4.96% -4.48% -6.73%
2024-07-23 BMO 1.96 +14.6% -2.97% -5.73% -5.38%

Is KMB (KMB) overvalued right now?

KMB (KMB) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 18.1, sitting at the 23th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

KMB (KMB) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on KMB (KMB) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

KMB (KMB) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on KMB (KMB), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

KMB (KMB) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on KMB (KMB) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does KMB show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show KMB's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's KMB page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.