LLY (LLY)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

Eli Lilly shares are fairly valued, with neutral options volatility and no floor support, warranting a neutral stance.

  • Valuation is fair: current P/E of $38.28 sits at the 39.6th percentile, and P/B of $29.66 is at the 44.0th percentile, with a green validation flag.
  • Options-implied volatility is neutral (IV rank 64.3% over 241 days), indicating no extreme pricing or fear.
  • No reliable floor exists (0 valid floors) due to missing dividend, valuation, and EPV floor data, and the suitability verdict is 'route alternative'.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

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RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Neutral
Trailing P/E
38.3
5-yr percentile: 40%
P/B
29.7
5-yr percentile: 44%
p10
16.2
p25
26.4
p50
44.7
p75
68.6
p90
109.8

LLY is cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with a PEG of 0.41 and forward P/E of 20.9x, despite a trailing P/E near historical medians. The 51% earnings growth is not fully priced in, offering upside if trends continue. Biggest risk is a slowdown in GLP-1 drug sales or competition eroding revenue growth.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

Alt Method USD 1135.93 Confidence low
STRESS DRAWDOWN medium
USD 872.75
Stress floor: if last 5y max drawdown repeats from current price (re-rating-immune)
High-growth, historical multiples re-rated — stress floor (current_price × (1−max 5y drawdown))

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 40.1% HV (30D) 40.3% IV RANK (1Y) 64 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

LLY
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.18%
Avg Day%
+0.58%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-08-05
in 56d
24-08
24-10
25-02
25-05
25-08
25-10
26-02
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-30 BMO 8.55 +25.9% +5.59% +9.80% +14.54%
2026-02-04 BMO 7.54 +9.1% +7.14% +10.33% +1.17%
2025-10-30 BMO 7.02 +19.1% +2.95% +3.81% +15.23%
2025-08-07 BMO 6.29 +14.5% -9.47% -14.14% -8.30%
2025-05-01 BMO 3.34 -3.4% -6.11% -11.66% -16.41%
2025-02-06 BMO 5.32 +5.0% -0.32% +3.35% +3.52%
2024-10-30 BMO 1.18 -19.5% -11.63% -6.28% -14.08%
2024-08-08 BMO 3.92 +41.7% +13.32% +9.48% +20.65%

Is LLY (LLY) overvalued right now?

LLY (LLY) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 38.3, sitting at the 40th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

LLY (LLY) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on LLY (LLY) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

LLY (LLY) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on LLY (LLY), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

LLY (LLY) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on LLY (LLY) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does LLY show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show LLY's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's LLY page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.