MCD (MCD)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

MCD holds a NEUTRAL bucket because the stock trades well above its fair-value floor despite favorable volatility conditions.

  • The current price of $275.75 is 153.2% above the buyzone, which is categorized as "far" — indicating no near-term entry opportunity relative to the floor.
  • Despite the distance from the floor, the implied volatility rank is "high" at 77.9%, suggesting options are relatively expensive and IV could decline over time.
  • The stock is priced cheaper than its 5-year extreme valuation floor (current PE 19.4× vs historical 5th percentile 19.7×), meaning the computed floor of $280.17 acts as a mean-reversion target, not a downside safety net.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$275.75 $108.89 engine floor
far above at floor

MCD is far above the floor (~153.2% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, MCD 5d reaction has been net positive +0.5%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 60 up / 32 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +1.4% 12 samples · 7 up / 4 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +1.9% 12 samples · 8 up / 3 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -1.5% 10 samples · 6 up / 4 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +0.9% 10 samples · 6 up / 2 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +1.1% 9 samples · 6 up / 1 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +0.8% 8 samples · 5 up / 2 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +2.5% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +1.0% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d -0.6% 7 samples · 3 up / 4 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -2.3% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +1.1% 7 samples · 3 up / 0 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +0.6% 6 samples · 3 up / 2 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d -3.5% 5 samples · 2 up / 3 down
Vs sector ETF (XLY, 5d)
-3.8pp lagging sector
MCD -5.5% Sector benchmark XLY -1.7%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 275.75 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 2.53×
DIVIDEND high
USD 201.58
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
51y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION low
method skipped: stock is already pricing CHEAPER than its 5-year extreme — current PE 19.4× vs historical 5th-pct 19.7×. The PE-percentile formula gives 19.7× × EPS = 280.17, which is ABOVE the current price 275.75, making it a mean-reversion target (where the stock could rally TO), not a downside floor (where buyers would step in).
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 108.89
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 219.48
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 17.9% HV (30D) 19.3% IV RANK (1Y) 78 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

MCD
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.97%
Avg Day%
+1.72%
Up Hit Rate
88%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-08-06
in 85d
24-07
24-10
25-02
25-05
25-08
25-11
26-02
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-07 BMO 2.83 +3.1% +1.31% -0.14%
2026-02-11 AMC 3.12 +2.2% +2.05% +2.74% +1.86%
2025-11-05 BMO 3.22 -3.4% +0.12% +2.16% +2.58%
2025-08-06 BMO 3.19 +1.4% +2.75% +2.98% +2.11%
2025-05-01 BMO 2.67 -0.0% -2.03% -1.88% -1.93%
2025-02-10 BMO 2.83 -1.0% +2.71% +4.80% +3.58%
2024-10-29 BMO 3.23 +0.9% +0.27% -0.60% +0.18%
2024-07-29 BMO 2.97 -3.2% +0.62% +3.74% +6.53%

Is MCD (MCD) overvalued right now?

Whether MCD (MCD) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

MCD (MCD) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on MCD (MCD) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

MCD (MCD) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on MCD (MCD), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

MCD (MCD) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on MCD (MCD) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does MCD show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show MCD's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's MCD page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.