MO (MO)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

MO carries a NEUTRAL verdict as its price sits far above a high-confidence floor, leaving limited margin of safety despite no red flags.

  • At $68.12, the current price is 116.4% above the buyzone floor and trades at a 74.3rd-percentile PE (labeled 'expensive'), suggesting stretched valuation.
  • The stock earns a 'fair' valuation verdict with a green validation flag and zero risk alerts, indicating no immediate danger but also no compelling discount.
  • A high-confidence floor exists (discount to floor just +2.2%), but with price far above that floor and no extreme-low signal, the risk/reward is balanced.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$68.12 $31.48 engine floor
far above at floor

MO is far above the floor (~116.4% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (74th percentile)

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

Sign in to see which rules are firing on MO in your portfolio.
Sign in

VALUATION

Neutral
Trailing P/E
16.2
5-yr percentile: 74%
P/B
19.4
5-yr percentile: 39%
p10
7.5
p25
8.2
p50
11.0
p75
16.5
p90
30.7

MO is expensively valued on a trailing basis with P/E at the 74th percentile of its 10-year range, but the stock screens as fairly priced on forward P/E of 11.5x, implying the market has already priced in the severe earnings decline. Growth is not priced in—the -63% earnings drop explains the low forward multiple, offering a potential margin of safety if the decline stabilizes. The biggest risk is that earnings continue to erode, making current forward estimates too optimistic.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

ideal USD 68.12 Confidence high
discount-to-floor: 2.16×
DIVIDEND high
USD 31.48
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
65y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION high
USD 42.80
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 49.99
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 149.97
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

Sign in to unlock →

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 24.3% HV (30D) 31.0% IV RANK (1Y) 70 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

MO
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.78%
Avg Day%
+0.08%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-30
in 78d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-30 BMO 1.32 +5.9% +8.28% +6.52% +1.23%
2026-01-29 BMO 1.30 -1.3% -3.23% -5.34% +3.58%
2025-10-30 BMO 1.41 -1.8% -4.52% -7.81% -7.58%
2025-07-30 BMO 1.44 +4.0% +0.86% +3.61% +6.38%
2025-04-29 BMO 1.23 +3.5% -2.04% +1.00% +3.94%
2025-01-30 BMO 1.29 +0.8% -3.11% -2.13% -0.04%
2024-10-31 BMO 1.38 +2.2% +1.74% +7.84% +6.02%
2024-07-31 BMO 1.31 -2.6% -4.25% -3.05% -1.03%

Is MO (MO) overvalued right now?

MO (MO) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 16.2, sitting at the 74th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

MO (MO) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on MO (MO) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

MO (MO) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on MO (MO), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

MO (MO) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on MO (MO) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does MO show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show MO's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's MO page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.