MSTR (MSTR)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

MSTR is rated NEUTRAL as current valuation appears fair despite very high implied volatility and the absence of a reliable valuation floor.

  • The PE percentile of 57.3% (current PE of $6.64) and PB percentile of 30.5% support a valuation verdict of 'fair', consistent with the NEUTRAL bucket.
  • Implied volatility rank at the 87.2% percentile (one-year history) is labeled 'high', signaling elevated options pricing that may deter premium-selling strategies.
  • The suitability verdict is 'unsuitable' because no valid valuation floor exists (0 valid floors), and the stock is flagged as not applicable for any conventional valuation method.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

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Macro context

Across past macro events, MSTR 5d reaction has been net positive +3.7%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 56 up / 42 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +7.2% 12 samples · 8 up / 2 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +6.6% 12 samples · 10 up / 2 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -1.8% 10 samples · 3 up / 6 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +1.1% 10 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -2.4% 9 samples · 2 up / 7 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +6.8% 8 samples · 6 up / 2 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +7.7% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +10.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +2.4% 7 samples · 4 up / 1 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -0.6% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.7% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +8.4% 6 samples · 2 up / 4 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +2.4% 5 samples · 2 up / 3 down
Vs sector ETF (XLK, 5d)
-4.8pp lagging sector
MSTR -0.9% Sector benchmark XLK +3.9%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Neutral
Trailing P/E
6.6
5-yr percentile: 57%
P/B
0.7
5-yr percentile: 31%
p10
2.6
p25
4.3
p50
5.9
p75
13.7
p90
32.9
Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

Floor data pending
The next daily scan will fill in hard-logic floors for MSTR. If it doesn't appear after a few days, contact the admin.

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 75.9% HV (30D) 75.9% IV RANK (1Y) 87 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

MSTR
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+1.63%
Avg Day%
+2.23%
Up Hit Rate
62%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-30
in 33d
24-08
24-10
25-02
25-05
25-07
25-10
26-02
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-05 AMC -38.25 -149.6% -1.25% -0.04% -4.75%
2026-02-05 AMC -42.93 -104.5% +7.44% +26.11% +25.13%
2025-10-30 AMC 8.42 -12.9% +6.05% +5.87% -4.97%
2025-07-31 AMC 32.52 +51.4% -2.85% -8.77% -1.67%
2025-05-01 AMC -16.53 +3.22% +3.35% +9.02%
2025-02-05 AMC -3.20 -5433.3% +0.59% -3.34% -3.50%
2024-10-30 AMC -1.56 +1.54% -1.14% +9.50%
2024-08-01 AMC -0.76 -1.72% -4.22% -10.46%

Is MSTR (MSTR) overvalued right now?

MSTR (MSTR) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 6.6, sitting at the 57th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

MSTR (MSTR) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on MSTR (MSTR) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

MSTR (MSTR) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on MSTR (MSTR), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

MSTR (MSTR) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on MSTR (MSTR) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does MSTR show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show MSTR's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's MSTR page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.