MSTR (MSTR)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

MSTR is rated NEUTRAL because the stock lacks conventional valuation anchors and shows elevated implied volatility with low floor confidence.

  • No conventional valuation method applies (PE, PB, PS data all absent), leaving no fundamental baseline.
  • Current implied volatility is 68.8% and the 1‑year IV rank is 76.0% (high), indicating expensive option premiums.
  • The floor-based analysis is unsuitable due to zero valid floors and low confidence, with a warning that no standard valuation method fits this stock.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

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Macro context

Across past macro events, MSTR 5d reaction has been net positive +3.7%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 56 up / 42 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +7.2% 12 samples · 8 up / 2 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +6.6% 12 samples · 10 up / 2 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -1.8% 10 samples · 3 up / 6 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +1.1% 10 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -2.4% 9 samples · 2 up / 7 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +6.8% 8 samples · 6 up / 2 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +7.7% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +10.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +2.4% 7 samples · 4 up / 1 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -0.6% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.7% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +8.4% 6 samples · 2 up / 4 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +2.4% 5 samples · 2 up / 3 down
Vs sector ETF (XLK, 5d)
-4.8pp lagging sector
MSTR -0.9% Sector benchmark XLK +3.9%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

Floor data pending
The next daily scan will fill in hard-logic floors for MSTR. If it doesn't appear after a few days, contact the admin.

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

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What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 68.8% HV (30D) 68.2% IV RANK (1Y) 76 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

MSTR
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+1.63%
Avg Day%
+2.23%
Up Hit Rate
62%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-30
in 78d
24-08
24-10
25-02
25-05
25-07
25-10
26-02
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-05 AMC -38.25 -101.5% -1.25% -0.04%
2026-02-05 AMC -42.93 -104.5% +7.44% +26.11% +25.13%
2025-10-30 AMC 8.42 -12.9% +6.05% +5.87% -4.97%
2025-07-31 AMC 32.52 +51.4% -2.85% -8.77% -1.67%
2025-05-01 AMC -16.53 +3.22% +3.35% +9.02%
2025-02-05 AMC -3.20 -5433.3% +0.59% -3.34% -3.50%
2024-10-30 AMC -1.56 +1.54% -1.14% +9.50%
2024-08-01 AMC -0.76 -1.72% -4.22% -10.46%

Is MSTR (MSTR) overvalued right now?

Whether MSTR (MSTR) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

MSTR (MSTR) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on MSTR (MSTR) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

MSTR (MSTR) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on MSTR (MSTR), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

MSTR (MSTR) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on MSTR (MSTR) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does MSTR show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show MSTR's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's MSTR page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.