NFLX (NFLX)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Avoid

NFLX is flagged AVOID because its extreme valuation, sky-high PE ratio, and far buyzone position signal unsustainable pricing relative to fundamental floors.

  • The current PE ratio of $576.06 is extremely elevated, and the PE-based valuation method is flagged as 'PE_DISTORTED' with a red validation flag, indicating unreliable earnings multiples.
  • The stock trades $87.66, which is 356.4% above the estimated floor range (valuation floor $19.21, EPV floor $21.31), leaving no margin of safety.
  • The buyzone bucket is 'far', reflecting a 356.4% distance from the floor, and the valuation floor calculation warns that the historical PE band is no longer representative, shifting to a lower recent-window fallback.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$87.66 $19.21 engine floor
far above at floor

NFLX is far above the floor (~356.4% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, NFLX 5d reaction has been net positive +1.3%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 56 up / 46 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +3.9% 12 samples · 7 up / 5 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +4.1% 12 samples · 6 up / 4 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -5.3% 10 samples · 2 up / 8 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +0.8% 10 samples · 5 up / 5 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -0.2% 9 samples · 4 up / 5 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +5.4% 8 samples · 7 up / 1 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +0.4% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d +0.2% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d +2.4% 7 samples · 6 up / 1 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +3.2% 7 samples · 5 up / 2 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d +0.6% 7 samples · 4 up / 2 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +2.1% 6 samples · 2 up / 4 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d -2.8% 5 samples · 1 up / 3 down
Vs sector ETF (XLC, 5d)
-1.2pp lagging sector
NFLX -3.6% Sector benchmark XLC -2.5%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

Sign in to see which rules are firing on NFLX in your portfolio.
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VALUATION

Large data-source divergence — please verify
Trailing P/E
⚠️ 576.1
P/B
12.9
5-yr percentile: 100%
P/S 7.9x Expensive
PE > 100x: current earnings are not the pricing basis; the market is pricing future growth optionality. P/S uses revenue as the basis — unaffected by losses or low earnings. Tech growth reference: <5x fair, 5-10x expensive, >10x very expensive, >20x requires extremely high growth.
p10
3.2
p25
4.4
p50
7.1
p75
12.3
p90
20.3

① NFLX is expensive on trailing earnings at a 607.5x P/E but appears cheap on a forward PEG of 0.28 given 86% earnings growth. ② Strong growth is not fully priced in, as the forward P/E of 24.0x and PEG under 1.0 suggest room for upside. ③ The biggest risk is that growth decelerates sharply, making the high trailing multiples unsustainable.

Floor Engine

partial USD 87.66 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 4.56×
VALUATION medium
USD 19.21
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
Default fallback to valuation method
EPV medium
USD 21.31
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 41.56
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 39.7% HV (30D) 40.8% IV RANK (1Y) 78 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

NFLX
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.07%
Avg Day%
-0.78%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-16
in 64d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-16 AMC 1.23 -6.9% -10.59% -9.72% -14.24%
2026-01-20 AMC 0.56 +1.5% -5.43% -2.18% -3.00%
2025-10-21 AMC 0.59 -15.8% -7.93% -10.07% -11.35%
2025-07-17 AMC 0.72 +1.9% -2.53% -5.10% -7.35%
2025-04-17 AMC 0.66 +16.4% +1.17% +1.53% +14.12%
2025-01-21 AMC 0.43 +1.4% +14.76% +9.69% +12.47%
2024-10-17 AMC 0.54 +5.3% +7.27% +11.09% +9.75%
2024-07-18 AMC 0.49 +2.5% +2.74% -1.51% -1.81%

Is NFLX (NFLX) overvalued right now?

Whether NFLX (NFLX) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

NFLX (NFLX) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on NFLX (NFLX) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

NFLX (NFLX) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on NFLX (NFLX), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

NFLX (NFLX) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on NFLX (NFLX) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does NFLX show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show NFLX's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's NFLX page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.