Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

Tesla Inc. is rated NEUTRAL as its premium valuation and lack of a hard valuation floor temper the bullish growth narrative, while no specific red flags trigger a bearish call.

  • The PE percentile of 94.91 and PB percentile of 92.26 place the stock deep in 'expensive' territory, indicating it trades at a historically high multiple relative to its own past.
  • The current price of $381.59 shows no discount to any valid hard floor (zero qualifying floors, low confidence), meaning there is no traditional safety net from intrinsic valuation.
  • With IV rank at 57.3% (neutral range) and zero risk alerts or hot events, the stock lacks the volatility extremes or catalysts needed to push decisively into a BUY or SELL bucket.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

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Macro context

Across past macro events, TSLA 5d reaction has been net negative -3.6%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 40 up / 56 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +5.0% 12 samples · 7 up / 4 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d -4.9% 12 samples · 4 up / 7 down
oil-shock → avg 5d -8.8% 10 samples · 2 up / 7 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d -1.7% 10 samples · 3 up / 6 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d -5.8% 9 samples · 3 up / 5 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d -10.4% 8 samples · 4 up / 4 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +0.5% 7 samples · 3 up / 4 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d -0.2% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d -11.1% 7 samples · 1 up / 5 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d -8.4% 7 samples · 3 up / 4 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d -1.1% 7 samples · 3 up / 2 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d -0.4% 6 samples · 2 up / 3 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +0.2% 5 samples · 2 up / 2 down
Vs sector ETF (XLY, 5d)
-1.8pp lagging sector
TSLA -3.5% Sector benchmark XLY -1.7%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Expensive
Trailing P/E
⚠️ 358.6
5-yr percentile: 95%
P/B
17.3
5-yr percentile: 92%
P/S 15.2x Very Expensive
PE > 100x: current earnings are not the pricing basis; the market is pricing future growth optionality. P/S uses revenue as the basis — unaffected by losses or low earnings. Tech growth reference: <5x fair, 5-10x expensive, >10x very expensive, >20x requires extremely high growth.
p10
28.2
p25
41.7
p50
72.1
p75
148.2
p90
272.5

① TSLA is extremely expensive, trading near 100th percentile of its trailing P/E and with a P/S above 10x, signaling extreme overvaluation. ② Growth is not priced in—its PEG of 17.9 and forward P/E of 148x require decades of exceptional earnings expansion to justify current levels. ③ Biggest risk is multiple compression from any growth deceleration or rising interest rates, which could trigger a severe valuation reset.

Sufficient earnings data; P/E historical percentile directly measures overvaluation or undervaluation

Floor Engine

Floor data pending
The next daily scan will fill in hard-logic floors for TSLA. If it doesn't appear after a few days, contact the admin.

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 44.9% HV (30D) 46.3% IV RANK (1Y) 57 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

TSLA
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+0.74%
Avg Day%
+0.61%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-22
in 42d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-22 AMC 0.13 -36.5% -3.16% -3.56% -1.52%
2026-01-28 AMC 0.50 +11.0% +1.47% -3.45% -7.94%
2025-10-22 AMC 0.50 -10.5% -4.32% +2.28% +0.26%
2025-07-23 AMC 0.33 +10.5% -6.78% -8.20% -7.30%
2025-04-22 AMC 0.27 -34.9% +7.10% +5.37% +18.57%
2025-01-29 AMC 0.73 -4.8% +5.57% +2.87% -3.80%
2024-10-23 AMC 0.72 +20.5% +14.52% +21.92% +16.94%
2024-07-23 AMC 0.52 -16.1% -8.51% -12.33% -5.81%

Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) overvalued right now?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 358.6, sitting at the 95th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does TSLA show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show TSLA's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's TSLA page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.