TSM (TSM)
TSM is rated NEUTRAL as a 'far' buyzone and 'expensive' PE label offset a fair valuation verdict and green validation flag.
- Current PE of $33.78 sits at the 72.5th percentile, tagged as 'expensive', and the stock trades 323% above its estimated floor, keeping it far from a buying opportunity.
- Despite high volatility (IV rank 94.1% labeled 'high'), the absence of red alerts and a fair valuation verdict prevent a bearish downgrade, while the 4.2% discount to floor offers only marginal support.
- The buyzone remains 'far' and the floor carries medium confidence with two valid floors, reinforcing a neutral stance without strong directional conviction.
BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal
TSM is far above the floor (~323.0% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation expensive (73th percentile)
Macro context
RULES & ALERTS FIRING
Sign in
VALUATION
Floor Engine
DIVIDEND USD 174.69、EPV USD 93.27）远低于当前价（< 40%），引擎判断这些方法的历史样本已被过时的定价区间主导（典型 re-rated 股票），回退到一个对 wheel/options 仓位更可执行的回撤型底价。Golden USD 258.49 ＝ ATH × (1 − 35%)（同一回撤方法，更浅档位）。
注：下方场景卡片显示的 DIVIDEND/VALUATION/EPV 数字是引擎仍计算了但未采纳的原始候选 — 保留可见以便审视引擎判断。
Glossary (click to expand)
- Forward P/E
- P/E using analysts' next-12-month EPS estimates. More forward-looking than trailing P/E, but exposed to forecast error.
- Trailing P/E
- P/E using actual EPS from the last 12 months. Distorted by one-time events (asset sales, impairments) until they roll out of the window.
- P/B (Price-to-Book)
- Stock price / book value per share. Meaningful for asset-driven sectors (banks, insurers); high values are normal for asset-light sectors (tech, consumer).
- PEG
- P/E ÷ earnings growth rate — \"how much P/E you pay per 1% of growth\". <1 = cheap-ish, >2 = priced-in.
- Regime-mismatch drawdown model
- When P/E distribution undergoes a structural shift (business transformation, sector re-rating), traditional \"revert to historical P/E percentile\" misleads. This model uses historical max drawdown × current EPS instead.
- EPV (Earnings Power Value)
- Greenwald framework: assume zero growth + current earning power is sustainable. Yields a conservative lower bound (asset + franchise value).
- Heuristic Fallback
- Backup estimator used when the primary method (P/E percentile, yield reversion, etc.) is unreliable due to data issues. **Lower confidence** — reference only, not auto-execute.
- Confidence
- Primary method applicable → high; multiple methods agree → medium; single heuristic fallback → low. Low confidence means review before acting.
method skipped: insufficient PE history (6 months, need 60)
method skipped: ROIC data not available; falling back to pure EPV.
YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT
○ anonymous· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price
· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds
· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Earnings Reactions
| Date | Time | EPS | Surprise | Gap% | Day% | Week% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | AMC | 3.49 | +4.7% | -1.66% | -3.13% | +2.02% |
| 2026-01-15 | BMO | 3.14 | +5.5% | +4.80% | +4.44% | +2.37% |
| 2025-10-15 | AMC | 2.92 | +11.2% | +2.04% | -1.60% | -4.59% |
| 2025-07-17 | BMO | 2.47 | +6.8% | +3.46% | +3.38% | +1.70% |
| 2025-04-17 | BMO | 2.12 | +3.2% | +2.89% | +0.05% | +8.85% |
| 2025-01-16 | — | 2.24 | +0.7% | +5.85% | +3.86% | +7.29% |
| 2024-10-17 | BMO | 1.94 | +8.4% | +8.46% | +9.79% | +5.57% |
| 2024-07-18 | BMO | 1.48 | +4.0% | +2.51% | +0.39% | -6.38% |
Is TSM (TSM) overvalued right now?
TSM (TSM) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 33.8, sitting at the 73th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.
TSM (TSM) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?
Selling cash-secured puts on TSM (TSM) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.
TSM (TSM) — which option strategy fits your view?
If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on TSM (TSM), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.
TSM (TSM) — is now a good entry?
Entry timing on TSM (TSM) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.
FAQ
Why does TSM show different P/E numbers on different sites?
Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.
Does this page show TSM's implied volatility?
Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.
How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's TSM page?
Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.