ULTA (ULTA)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

ULTA is rated NEUTRAL as the stock trades 31.5% above its fair-value floor, suggesting limited margin of safety.

  • Current price of $479.57 stands 31.5% above the nearest valuation floor of $464.21, indicating the stock is far from a discounted entry zone.
  • The implied volatility rank of 57.6% is neutral, providing no strong directional signal from option-market pricing.
  • No risk alerts are triggered, and no extreme low valuation flag exists, reinforcing a balanced outlook without clear overreaction.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$479.57 $364.75 engine floor
far above at floor

ULTA is far above the floor (~31.5% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

partial USD 479.57 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 1.31×
VALUATION medium
USD 464.21
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV medium
USD 364.75
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 1094.25
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PB medium
USD 223.95
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)
PSR medium
USD 532.22
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
High-growth, earnings not yet stable — PSR is the next-best anchor

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 32.7% HV (30D) 32.7% IV RANK (1Y) 58 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

ULTA
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
+2.19%
Avg Day%
+2.11%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-08-27
in 39d
24-08
24-12
25-03
25-05
25-08
25-12
26-03
26-06
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-06-02 AMC 7.74 +12.3% -3.26% -4.78% -4.87%
2026-03-12 AMC 8.01 -0.2% -9.35% -14.24% -15.16%
2025-12-04 AMC 5.14 +11.5% +8.43% +12.65% +12.67%
2025-08-28 AMC 5.78 +13.2% -0.71% -7.14% -2.04%
2025-05-29 AMC 6.70 +15.5% +10.99% +11.78% +10.40%
2025-03-13 AMC 8.46 +18.4% +8.82% +13.68% +11.48%
2024-12-05 AMC 5.14 +13.6% +9.01% +8.99% +7.95%
2024-08-29 AMC 5.30 -3.0% -6.39% -4.01% +3.81%

Is ULTA (ULTA) overvalued right now?

Whether ULTA (ULTA) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

ULTA (ULTA) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on ULTA (ULTA) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

ULTA (ULTA) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on ULTA (ULTA), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

ULTA (ULTA) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on ULTA (ULTA) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does ULTA show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show ULTA's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's ULTA page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.