UPS (UPS)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral

UPS is neutral as the stock trades 32% above its calculated floor with elevated option IV, suggesting no extreme bargain or urgent risk.

  • Current price of $108.10 sits 32% above the engine-computed floor (buyzone: far), indicating the stock is not near a deep value entry.
  • Option implied volatility ranks at the 99.1st percentile (IV rank label: high), pointing to unusually high market uncertainty that warrants caution.
  • The valuation model lacks sufficient data (no PE, PB, or PS figures), so the fair-value picture relies solely on the floor framework, which carries a dividend-methodology warning.
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$108.10 $81.87 engine floor
far above at floor

UPS is far above the floor (~32.0% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 108.10 Confidence high
discount-to-floor: 1.32×
DIVIDEND high
USD 81.87
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
VALUATION high
USD 91.88
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 90.61
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 162.02
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)
PB medium
USD 75.03
P/B reverts to historical 10th-percentile (asset-driven businesses)
PSR medium
USD 8.81
PSR reverts to historical 10th-percentile (growth stocks pre-stable-earnings)
High-growth, earnings not yet stable — PSR is the next-best anchor

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 44.4% HV (30D) 44.4% IV RANK (1Y) 99 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

UPS
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-1.32%
Avg Day%
-3.45%
Up Hit Rate
25%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-07-28
in 44d
24-07
24-10
25-01
25-04
25-07
25-10
26-01
26-04
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-04-28 BMO 1.07 +4.8% -3.93% -3.97% -9.40%
2026-01-27 BMO 2.38 +8.1% -0.27% +0.21% +4.56%
2025-10-28 BMO 1.74 +33.9% +10.35% +8.00% +4.52%
2025-07-29 BMO 1.55 -1.0% -3.34% -10.57% -14.57%
2025-04-29 BMO 1.49 +7.9% -1.12% -0.37% -3.38%
2025-01-30 BMO 2.75 +8.6% -12.25% -14.11% -15.18%
2024-10-24 BMO 1.76 +8.4% +10.34% +5.28% +2.02%
2024-07-23 BMO 1.79 -10.1% -10.36% -12.05% -11.12%

Is UPS (UPS) overvalued right now?

Whether UPS (UPS) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

UPS (UPS) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on UPS (UPS) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

UPS (UPS) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on UPS (UPS), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

UPS (UPS) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on UPS (UPS) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does UPS show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show UPS's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's UPS page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.