WMT (WMT)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Neutral rule-based

WMT has no clear signal.

  • Buy-zone state: far (+305.2% to floor)
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$111.48 $27.52 engine floor
far above at floor

WMT is far above the floor (~305.2% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view.

Macro context

Across past macro events, WMT 5d reaction has been net positive +0.8%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 59 up / 33 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +0.4% 12 samples · 6 up / 5 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +0.4% 12 samples · 7 up / 4 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +2.3% 10 samples · 7 up / 3 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +1.9% 10 samples · 5 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +0.9% 9 samples · 4 up / 2 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +0.6% 8 samples · 5 up / 2 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +1.3% 7 samples · 5 up / 1 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d -0.3% 7 samples · 2 up / 2 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d -0.7% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +0.7% 7 samples · 3 up / 1 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d -0.3% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +0.8% 6 samples · 4 up / 2 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +1.8% 5 samples · 4 up / 1 down
Vs sector ETF (XLP, 5d)
-0.2pp in line with sector
WMT -0.3% Sector benchmark XLP -0.1%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Valuation data not yet available for this ticker. Try again in a few minutes.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 111.48 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 4.05×
DIVIDEND high
USD 67.68
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
53y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION low
method skipped: insufficient PE history (22 months, need 60)
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high
USD 27.52
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low
USD 38.21
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 25.2% HV (30D) 25.2% IV RANK (1Y) 64 NEUTRAL
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

WMT
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-0.04%
Avg Day%
-0.52%
Up Hit Rate
50%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-08-20
in 19d
24-08
24-11
25-02
25-05
25-08
25-11
26-02
26-05
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-05-21 BMO 0.66 +0.2% -4.92% -7.27% -11.54%
2026-02-19 BMO 0.74 +1.8% +1.48% -1.38% -1.74%
2025-11-20 BMO 0.62 +3.1% +3.31% +6.46% +9.84%
2025-08-21 BMO 0.68 -8.0% -3.08% -4.49% -6.30%
2025-05-15 BMO 0.61 +5.6% -2.61% -0.50% -0.93%
2025-02-20 BMO 0.66 +2.0% -5.02% -6.53% -6.93%
2024-11-19 BMO 0.58 +8.8% +2.56% +3.00% +8.60%
2024-08-15 BMO 0.67 +3.8% +7.95% +6.58% +10.08%

Is WMT (WMT) overvalued right now?

Whether WMT (WMT) is overvalued depends on the lens you use: trailing P/E vs its own history, CAPE vs the broader market, earnings yield vs Treasury yields. We surface all three so you don't have to pick one in isolation.

WMT (WMT) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on WMT (WMT) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

WMT (WMT) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on WMT (WMT), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

WMT (WMT) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on WMT (WMT) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does WMT show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show WMT's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's WMT page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.