WMT (WMT)

Secondary decision view: valuation · portfolio context · the data you need before acting on a single-source signal.
Watch rule-based

WMT is near the buy zone but not triggered — watch.

  • Buy-zone state: far (+276.5% to floor)
  • Valuation label: cheap
Verdict bucket from deterministic rule (validation / floor distance / risk alerts). LLM narration only — never picks the bucket.

BUY-ZONE DECISION rule signal

$103.92 → $27.60 engine floor
far above at floor

WMT is far above the floor (~276.5% above) — adding here means paying a premium vs. your own threshold. Wait or take partial position only with a strong directional view. valuation cheap (22th percentile)

Macro context

Across past macro events, WMT 5d reaction has been net positive +0.8%
13 event categories · 107 samples · 59 up / 33 down · macro-beta evidence only
Per-category detail · macro beta breakdown
fed-fomc-rate-cycle → avg 5d +0.4% 12 samples · 6 up / 5 down
taiwan-strait-tension → avg 5d +0.4% 12 samples · 7 up / 4 down
oil-shock → avg 5d +2.3% 10 samples · 7 up / 3 down
us-china-tariff-escalation → avg 5d +1.9% 10 samples · 5 up / 4 down
big-ipo-event → avg 5d +0.9% 9 samples · 4 up / 2 down
bank-crisis → avg 5d +0.6% 8 samples · 5 up / 2 down
big-tech-earnings-shock → avg 5d +1.3% 7 samples · 5 up / 1 down
election-uncertainty → avg 5d -0.3% 7 samples · 2 up / 2 down
natural-disaster → avg 5d -0.7% 7 samples · 3 up / 3 down
pandemic-emergency → avg 5d +0.7% 7 samples · 3 up / 1 down
sovereign-debt-crisis → avg 5d -0.3% 7 samples · 4 up / 3 down
china-property-crisis → avg 5d +0.8% 6 samples · 4 up / 2 down
russia-ukraine-war → avg 5d +1.8% 5 samples · 4 up / 1 down
Vs sector ETF (XLP, 5d)
-0.2pp in line with sector
WMT -0.3% Sector benchmark XLP -0.1%
Macro-beta evidence: how this ticker historically reacted to broad macro shocks. Not a thesis-level call — for that, you have to read the news and decide.

RULES & ALERTS FIRING

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VALUATION

Undervalued
Trailing P/E
37.0
5-yr percentile: 22%
P/B
8.8
5-yr percentile: 84%
p10
33.6
p25
37.8
p50
39.6
p75
42.5
p90
44.1
Large PE vs PB percentile gap — possibly due to dramatic earnings shifts distorting PE. Consider Forward PE and growth expectations.

Floor Engine

ideal USD 103.92 Confidence medium
discount-to-floor: 3.77×
DIVIDEND ★ high ⓘ
USD 68.90
Yield reverts to historical 95th-percentile (extreme yield level)
53y dividend history (≥10), dividend method reliable
VALUATION low ⓘ
—
method skipped: insufficient PE history (24 months, need 60)
PE reverts to historical 5th-percentile (extreme undervaluation)
EPV high ⓘ
USD 27.60
Zero-growth scenario + current cash/debt (Greenwald franchise value)
EPV GROWTH PREMIUM low ⓘ
USD 38.38
EPV × franchise-value multiplier (compounder premium when ROIC > WACC)

YOUR WATCHLIST CONTEXT

○ anonymous
What you'll see after sign-in
Your floor
$XXX.XX
Your golden
$XXX.XX
Market
XXX

· Your personal floor / golden price overlay on the live price

· Per-ticker rule alerts when this stock crosses your thresholds

· Position P&L overlay — what this ticker means inside your full portfolio

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IMPLIED VOLATILITY

CURRENT IV 35.4% HV (30D) 35.4% IV RANK (1Y) 100 HIGH
IV vs HV · last 1 year

Earnings Reactions

WMT
8 earnings events · last 2 years
Avg Gap%
-1.90%
Avg Day%
-2.48%
Up Hit Rate
38%
Next Earnings · est.
2026-11-19
in 49d
24-11
25-02
25-05
25-08
25-11
26-02
26-05
26-08
Bar height = |Gap%| normalized to the period max. Green = up, red = down.
Date Time EPS Surprise Gap% Day% Week%
2026-08-20 BMO 0.81 +9.3% -6.93% -9.15% -10.21%
2026-05-21 BMO 0.66 +0.2% -4.92% -7.27% -11.54%
2026-02-19 BMO 0.74 +1.8% +1.48% -1.38% -1.74%
2025-11-20 BMO 0.62 +3.1% +3.31% +6.46% +9.84%
2025-08-21 BMO 0.68 -8.0% -3.08% -4.49% -6.30%
2025-05-15 BMO 0.61 +5.6% -2.61% -0.50% -0.93%
2025-02-20 BMO 0.66 +2.0% -5.02% -6.53% -6.93%
2024-11-19 BMO 0.58 +8.8% +2.56% +3.00% +8.60%

Is WMT (WMT) overvalued right now?

WMT (WMT) is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 37.0, sitting at the 22th percentile of its 5-year valuation history. A high percentile suggests the market is pricing the stock above its own historical norm — useful context before sizing a new position or selling premium against it.

WMT (WMT) — what's the SELL PUT risk profile?

Selling cash-secured puts on WMT (WMT) is a common income strategy, but the right strike depends on your floor price (the level you'd happily own at) and the option chain's buffer/APY tradeoff. The full ladder view (deferred to a future release) ranks candidates by buffer percentage first, then APY — see the option ladder methodology for why buffer matters more than yield in this strategy.

WMT (WMT) — which option strategy fits your view?

If you're bullish long-term but cautious near-term on WMT (WMT), SELL PUT into your floor zone collects premium while waiting for a better entry. If you already own it and are neutral-to-mildly-bullish, COVERED CALL caps upside but harvests time decay. The wrong strategy on the right ticker still loses money — match the trade to your view, not the other way around.

WMT (WMT) — is now a good entry?

Entry timing on WMT (WMT) is a function of your floor price (hard buy zone) and golden price (back-the-truck-up zone). Both are personal — set them in your watchlist and we'll alert you when the market hits either level.

FAQ

Why does WMT show different P/E numbers on different sites?

Different data providers use different earnings windows (TTM vs forward, GAAP vs adjusted) and update at different cadences. We surface trailing P/E with a 5-year percentile rank to give context — a P/E of 30 is hot for one stock and cold for another.

Does this page show WMT's implied volatility?

Not on this v0 page — the dedicated volatility tool covers IV with multi-source voting (IBKR + Polygon + yfinance). For pure IV lookup, use /tools/volatility. This page is for decision-stage queries that pull together valuation + portfolio context.

How is this different from Yahoo Finance or 雪球's WMT page?

Those sites are great for raw data discovery — last price, news, headline P/E. This page is built for the second look: you've already seen a single-dimension signal somewhere else, now you need multi-dimensional decision context (your floor, the valuation percentile, your portfolio overlay) in one view, not five tabs.