Market Pulse
Daily US market sentiment across six dimensions — valuation, volatility, sentiment, breadth, cross-asset, and indices. Refreshes after the US close.
What do these mean?
- Market calm Volatility — How choppy prices are — calmer markets score higher.
- Stocks rising Breadth — Is the rally broad or carried by a few big names — broader scores higher.
- Borrowing cost Credit & Rates — How costly it is for companies to borrow — easier credit scores higher.
- Cash available Liquidity — How much spare cash is in the financial system — more scores higher.
- Fear level Sentiment — Are investors panicky or greedy — less fear scores higher.
Is higher always better? Yes — by design. Unhealthy extremes (euphoria, complacency, overheated breadth) already count as risk and pull the score DOWN, so a bubble-top market scores low, not 100. Near-100 means every indicator sits in its healthy zone. One nuance: a few zones (deep breadth washout, extreme put-buying fear) are shown GREEN on the indicator cards because they mark classic contrarian entry setups — but for THIS score they still count as heavy stress, since the question here is how friendly the environment is, not where the bottom-fishing odds are. The score describes today's environment; it does not predict returns.
Program-computed from indicator zones · formula v2 · weights: Vol 25% / Breadth 20% / Cross-asset 20% / Liquidity 20% / Sentiment 15%
VIX — S&P 500 implied volatilityVIX
S&P 500 implied volatility — what options traders pay to hedge over the next 30 days. Low (<12) means complacency; spikes above 30 mean panic, historically near major bottoms.
VXN — NASDAQ 100 implied volatilityVXN
Same idea as VIX but on the NASDAQ 100. Runs a few points hotter than VIX because NDX is more concentrated in high-beta names.
MOVE — Treasury implied volatilityMOVE
The 'VIX of bonds' — implied volatility on Treasuries. Calm under 70, shock above 180. Bond stress often precedes equity stress.
SKEW — S&P 500 tail-risk pricingSKEW
Tail-risk pricing for the S&P 500 — how much extra option traders are paying for crash protection. Sustained 140+ flags institutional anxiety about a left-tail event.
VIX term structure (3M − spot)VIX_TERM_STRUCTURE
CBOE 3-month VIX minus VIX spot. The 3M VIX is a constant-maturity index — what option markets price for vol over the next 90 days, no rolling-future noise. Positive (contango) is normal: longer-dated vol slightly higher. Negative (backwardation) means near-term stress dominates longer-term expectations. One of the cleanest 'is this a real selloff' signals.
% sectors above 200-day MASECTORS_ABOVE_200DMA
How many of the 11 SPDR sectors are above their 200-day moving average. Under 20% is washout territory (contrarian buy); over 80% is overheating. Middle is healthy breadth.
RSP − SPY 1Y (equal vs cap weight)RSP_SPY_1Y
Equal-weight S&P (RSP) 1Y return minus market-cap S&P (SPY) 1Y return. Negative means a few mega-caps are carrying the index — concentration risk. Positive means broad participation, a healthier bull.
IWM − SPY 1Y (small vs large cap)IWM_SPY_1Y
Russell 2000 small-cap 1Y return minus S&P 500 1Y return. Small caps leading = risk-on appetite; small caps lagging deeply = defensive regime.
HY OAS — high-yield credit spread (bps)HY_OAS
Yield spread between high-yield ('junk') corporate bonds and Treasuries, in basis points. Tight (<300bp) means credit markets are relaxed; wide (>800bp) means stress. Extreme widening is historically a contrarian buy late in the cycle.
10Y − 2Y Treasury spread (bps)YIELD_SPREAD_2_10
10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year, in basis points. Negative = yield curve inverted, historically a leading recession signal (12-18 months out). Steep positive = post-recession reflation.
DXY — US Dollar IndexDXY
US Dollar Index — the dollar's strength vs a basket of major currencies. A strong dollar (>108) typically hurts emerging markets and US multinational earnings.
Gold/Copper ratioGOLD_COPPER_RATIO
Price of gold (per oz) divided by copper (per lb). Gold is the defensive metal; copper is the industrial-demand metal. A rising ratio means flight to safety; a falling ratio means risk-on growth bid.
WTI crude oil (front-month futures)WTI
WTI crude oil front-month futures, in dollars per barrel. Reads as a macro proxy: cheap oil = weak global demand (disinflation); expensive oil = tight supply or geopolitical stress (inflationary).
5-year Treasury yieldFVX_5Y
Mid-curve Treasury yield. Together with the 10Y and 30Y, sketches the curve shape. Roughly tracks the Fed's expected medium-term path. Lower than 10Y in normal contango; above it during late-cycle inversion.
10-year Treasury yieldTNX_10Y
The headline US rate — drives mortgage rates, equity valuations, dollar strength. Double-tailed: very low (<2%) flags deflation/recession risk, very high (>5.5%) flags inflation or debt stress. Historical normal range 3–4.5%.
30-year Treasury yieldTYX_30Y
Long-bond yield. Reflects long-run growth + inflation expectations + term premium. A rising 30Y while short rates hold steady is a steepening signal — markets demand more compensation for fiscal / inflation risk over the long horizon.
Put/Call ratio (CBOE equity)PUT_CALL_RATIO
Total CBOE equity options put volume divided by call volume. Above 1.0 = more puts than calls, defensive positioning. Extreme spikes are contrarian — historically near bottoms.
CNN Fear & Greed IndexFEAR_GREED
CNN's composite of 7 sentiment signals scaled 0-100. Below 25 = extreme fear (often a buying setup); above 75 = extreme greed (caution flag).
Liquidity Pressure Index — 0-100 compositeLIQUIDITY_PRESSURE_INDEX
Composite 0-100 score across 5 dollar-liquidity components. ≥60 = de-risk proactively. ≥75 + confirming signals (SOFR-IORB turning positive, HY OAS widening, key trend breaks) = move defensive.
Fed Balance Sheet — total Fed assets ($T)FED_BALANCE_SHEET
Total Fed assets. Persistent decline = QT draining base liquidity. Watch the trend rather than the level — pace matters more than absolute size.
ON RRP — overnight reverse-repo balance ($B)ON_RRP
The most visible liquidity buffer in the Fed's system. When QT or Treasury issuance drains cash, it comes from RRP first — markets feel little impact. Once RRP is near zero, pressure starts hitting bank reserves directly.
Bank Reserves — system liquidity pool ($T)BANK_RESERVES
The core liquidity pool of the banking system. Ample reserves = strong shock absorber. Declining reserves + low ON RRP is when sensitivity to any shock rises sharply.
SOFR — secured overnight financing rate (%)SOFR
True overnight funding cost for the repo market. Meaningful mostly relative to IORB.
IORB — interest on reserve balances (%)IORB
The Fed's policy rate paid on bank reserves — the upper bound for money-market rates in normal times.
SOFR − IORB — funding-stress gauge (bps)SOFR_IORB_SPREAD
SOFR persistently above IORB signals dealers paying up to fund — money-market stress is building.
TGA — Treasury cash account ($B)TGA
Treasury General Account balance. High and rising = the Treasury is hoarding cash, which drains liquidity from the banking system on top of QT.
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All data and AI commentary on this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Indicators may be delayed or sourced from unofficial feeds. Do your own research.