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China Property Crisis — Cross-Border Contagion Patterns

How FXI, EEM, copper, AUD, and CNY moved through Evergrande, Country Garden, and prior PRC property stress events

A flare-up in China property creates a complex contagion path through FXI, EEM, Hong Kong assets, copper, AUD, and the renminbi. We assembled 6 historical episodes to quantify how your portfolio has historically reacted.

6 historical samples
Data updated 2024-01-29
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
FXI China Large Cap
-0.97%
range -2.3% / +2.2% · n=6
-3.31%
range -6.6% / +1.2% · n=6
-3.10%
range -5.1% / +6.6% · n=6
EEM Emerging Markets
+0.01%
range -1.4% / +1.5% · n=6
-0.82%
range -3.6% / +1.8% · n=6
+1.13%
range -2.9% / +4.0% · n=6
SPY S&P 500
+0.46%
range -1.2% / +2.0% · n=6
+0.74%
range -2.4% / +3.8% · n=6
+5.55%
range -4.5% / +7.1% · n=6
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+0.34%
range -1.8% / +2.1% · n=6
-0.43%
range -3.4% / +4.4% · n=6
+4.57%
range -6.9% / +8.1% · n=6
GLD Gold
-0.22%
range -1.1% / +0.5% · n=6
-0.38%
range -2.0% / +0.4% · n=6
+0.90%
range -0.1% / +5.0% · n=6
USO Crude Oil
+0.79%
range -0.7% / +3.5% · n=6
-0.18%
range -3.2% / +7.0% · n=6
+8.19%
range +6.3% / +14.3% · n=6
UUP USD Index
+0.17%
range -0.0% / +0.2% · n=6
+0.53%
range -1.0% / +1.2% · n=6
+0.84%
range -0.6% / +2.5% · n=6
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+0.13%
range -1.7% / +1.6% · n=6
-0.58%
range -3.9% / +1.1% · n=6
-2.70%
range -4.8% / -1.2% · n=6
XLE Energy
+0.48%
range -1.5% / +4.1% · n=6
+2.00%
range -3.0% / +8.9% · n=6
+10.30%
range +3.5% / +22.0% · n=6
FXI China Large Cap
T+1
-0.97%
-2.3 / +2.2
T+5
-3.31%
-6.6 / +1.2
T+30
-3.10%
-5.1 / +6.6
EEM Emerging Markets
T+1
+0.01%
-1.4 / +1.5
T+5
-0.82%
-3.6 / +1.8
T+30
+1.13%
-2.9 / +4.0
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.46%
-1.2 / +2.0
T+5
+0.74%
-2.4 / +3.8
T+30
+5.55%
-4.5 / +7.1
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+0.34%
-1.8 / +2.1
T+5
-0.43%
-3.4 / +4.4
T+30
+4.57%
-6.9 / +8.1
GLD Gold
T+1
-0.22%
-1.1 / +0.5
T+5
-0.38%
-2.0 / +0.4
T+30
+0.90%
-0.1 / +5.0
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+0.79%
-0.7 / +3.5
T+5
-0.18%
-3.2 / +7.0
T+30
+8.19%
+6.3 / +14.3
UUP USD Index
T+1
+0.17%
-0.0 / +0.2
T+5
+0.53%
-1.0 / +1.2
T+30
+0.84%
-0.6 / +2.5
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.13%
-1.7 / +1.6
T+5
-0.58%
-3.9 / +1.1
T+30
-2.70%
-4.8 / -1.2
XLE Energy
T+1
+0.48%
-1.5 / +4.1
T+5
+2.00%
-3.0 / +8.9
T+30
+10.30%
+3.5 / +22.0

✓ Live example · Most recent event

香港法院下令 Evergrande 清盘 (2024-01-29) after FXI — real close prices for
Event day 2024-01-29 FXI closed at $21.36 30 calendar days later 2024-03-14 closed at $23.13 Math: ($23.13 ÷ $21.36) − 1 = +8.30%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("FXI", start="2024-01-29", end="2024-03-14") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-01-29
香港法院下令 Evergrande 清盘 Source →
2023-08-08
Country Garden 美元债濒临违约 Source →
2022-07-13
中国楼盘断供潮蔓延 100+ 城市 Source →
2021-12-09
Evergrande 正式违约，Fitch 降级 Source →
2021-09-20
Evergrande 美元债濒临违约，市场震动 Source →
2021-07-19
Evergrande 流动性危机首次爆出 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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