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Major Natural Disasters — Sector Reactions That Surprise Investors

Energy, insurance, building materials, and staples after major hurricanes, earthquakes, and nuclear incidents

After a major hurricane, earthquake, or nuclear incident, energy, insurance, building materials, and staples move in ways that often defy intuition. We catalogued 7 historical disasters to size what your portfolio is realistically positioned for.

7 historical samples
Data updated 2024-10-09
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
+0.22%
range -1.8% / +0.9% · n=7
+0.61%
range -1.2% / +1.8% · n=7
+3.53%
range -5.2% / +5.3% · n=7
XLE Energy
+0.55%
range -0.6% / +2.6% · n=7
+4.02%
range +0.3% / +8.8% · n=7
+4.96%
range +1.2% / +17.1% · n=7
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.17%
range -1.8% / +0.3% · n=7
+0.70%
range -1.9% / +1.0% · n=7
-1.23%
range -2.7% / +4.8% · n=7
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-0.15%
range -2.9% / +0.9% · n=7
+0.52%
range -3.8% / +1.0% · n=7
+2.12%
range -8.8% / +6.5% · n=7
XLI Industrials
-0.06%
range -1.7% / +1.0% · n=7
+0.69%
range -0.6% / +2.2% · n=7
+5.01%
range -4.7% / +10.4% · n=7
XLU Utilities
+0.22%
range -3.1% / +0.7% · n=7
-0.36%
range -5.1% / +3.6% · n=7
-0.16%
range -3.9% / +1.6% · n=7
GLD Gold
-0.01%
range -1.7% / +1.7% · n=7
+2.06%
range -0.7% / +4.8% · n=7
+4.16%
range -2.3% / +7.1% · n=7
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.79%
range -1.4% / +0.6% · n=7
-0.61%
range -2.5% / +1.4% · n=7
-2.23%
range -4.6% / +0.3% · n=7
USO Crude Oil
+0.11%
range -2.5% / +1.7% · n=7
+4.52%
range -1.4% / +9.7% · n=7
+7.09%
range -1.9% / +10.9% · n=7
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.22%
-1.8 / +0.9
T+5
+0.61%
-1.2 / +1.8
T+30
+3.53%
-5.2 / +5.3
XLE Energy
T+1
+0.55%
-0.6 / +2.6
T+5
+4.02%
+0.3 / +8.8
T+30
+4.96%
+1.2 / +17.1
XLP Consumer Staples
T+1
-0.17%
-1.8 / +0.3
T+5
+0.70%
-1.9 / +1.0
T+30
-1.23%
-2.7 / +4.8
XLY Consumer Discretionary
T+1
-0.15%
-2.9 / +0.9
T+5
+0.52%
-3.8 / +1.0
T+30
+2.12%
-8.8 / +6.5
XLI Industrials
T+1
-0.06%
-1.7 / +1.0
T+5
+0.69%
-0.6 / +2.2
T+30
+5.01%
-4.7 / +10.4
XLU Utilities
T+1
+0.22%
-3.1 / +0.7
T+5
-0.36%
-5.1 / +3.6
T+30
-0.16%
-3.9 / +1.6
GLD Gold
T+1
-0.01%
-1.7 / +1.7
T+5
+2.06%
-0.7 / +4.8
T+30
+4.16%
-2.3 / +7.1
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
-0.79%
-1.4 / +0.6
T+5
-0.61%
-2.5 / +1.4
T+30
-2.23%
-4.6 / +0.3
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+0.11%
-2.5 / +1.7
T+5
+4.52%
-1.4 / +9.7
T+30
+7.09%
-1.9 / +10.9

✓ Live example · Most recent event

Helene + Milton 双飓风袭东南 (2024-10-09) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2024-10-09 SPY closed at $566.98 30 calendar days later 2024-11-25 closed at $587.01 Math: ($587.01 ÷ $566.98) − 1 = +3.53%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2024-10-09", end="2024-11-25") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-10-09
Helene + Milton 双飓风袭东南 Source →
2022-09-28
伊恩飓风袭佛罗里达 Source →
2017-09-08
厄玛飓风袭佛州 + 加勒比 Source →
2017-08-25
哈维飓风袭得州，能源板块异动 Source →
2011-03-11
东日本大地震 + 福岛核事故 Source →
2008-05-12
汶川地震，中国市场短暂下跌 Source →
2005-08-29
卡特里娜飓风袭新奥尔良 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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