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Global Pandemic Emergencies — Cross-Asset Map

Travel, staples, healthcare, gold, and long bonds T+1 / T+5 / T+30 around WHO PHEIC declarations and pandemic alerts

When a fresh public-health emergency hits the wires, travel names, staples, healthcare, gold, and long-duration Treasuries each turn at different speeds. We pulled 7 historical emergencies to quantify what your portfolio is likely to do this time.

7 historical samples
Data updated 2022-07-25
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
+0.74%
range -2.5% / +1.6% · n=7
+2.13%
range -8.2% / +5.8% · n=7
+3.54%
range -18.1% / +8.0% · n=7
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+0.59%
range -1.8% / +1.8% · n=7
+3.42%
range -5.9% / +6.5% · n=7
+4.10%
range -14.5% / +9.8% · n=7
GLD Gold
-0.65%
range -3.6% / +1.1% · n=7
-0.78%
range -4.3% / +2.4% · n=7
-0.78%
range -6.1% / +5.1% · n=7
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.49%
range -2.0% / -0.0% · n=7
+0.88%
range -2.4% / +2.4% · n=7
+1.12%
range -9.0% / +11.3% · n=7
XLP Consumer Staples
+0.45%
range -2.0% / +1.4% · n=7
+2.07%
range -5.1% / +2.8% · n=7
+0.87%
range -11.1% / +5.6% · n=7
XLY Consumer Discretionary
+0.45%
range -3.9% / +1.5% · n=7
+2.08%
range -9.5% / +7.9% · n=7
+5.21%
range -20.4% / +7.9% · n=7
XLV Healthcare
+0.75%
range -1.8% / +1.6% · n=7
+2.71%
range -5.6% / +3.7% · n=7
+6.06%
range -10.0% / +8.8% · n=7
USO Crude Oil
+0.28%
range -4.0% / +1.9% · n=7
-3.53%
range -16.4% / +8.2% · n=7
-10.67%
range -59.6% / +16.3% · n=7
VIXY VIX Futures
-1.70%
range -3.9% / +9.5% · n=7
-9.76%
range -14.5% / +42.3% · n=7
-11.07%
range -20.6% / +188.8% · n=7
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.74%
-2.5 / +1.6
T+5
+2.13%
-8.2 / +5.8
T+30
+3.54%
-18.1 / +8.0
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+0.59%
-1.8 / +1.8
T+5
+3.42%
-5.9 / +6.5
T+30
+4.10%
-14.5 / +9.8
GLD Gold
T+1
-0.65%
-3.6 / +1.1
T+5
-0.78%
-4.3 / +2.4
T+30
-0.78%
-6.1 / +5.1
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
-0.49%
-2.0 / -0.0
T+5
+0.88%
-2.4 / +2.4
T+30
+1.12%
-9.0 / +11.3
XLP Consumer Staples
T+1
+0.45%
-2.0 / +1.4
T+5
+2.07%
-5.1 / +2.8
T+30
+0.87%
-11.1 / +5.6
XLY Consumer Discretionary
T+1
+0.45%
-3.9 / +1.5
T+5
+2.08%
-9.5 / +7.9
T+30
+5.21%
-20.4 / +7.9
XLV Healthcare
T+1
+0.75%
-1.8 / +1.6
T+5
+2.71%
-5.6 / +3.7
T+30
+6.06%
-10.0 / +8.8
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+0.28%
-4.0 / +1.9
T+5
-3.53%
-16.4 / +8.2
T+30
-10.67%
-59.6 / +16.3
VIXY VIX Futures
T+1
-1.70%
-3.9 / +9.5
T+5
-9.76%
-14.5 / +42.3
T+30
-11.07%
-20.6 / +188.8

✓ Live example · Most recent event

WHO 宣告猴痘为 PHEIC (2022-07-25) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2022-07-25 SPY closed at $375.93 30 calendar days later 2022-09-08 closed at $380.51 Math: ($380.51 ÷ $375.93) − 1 = +1.22%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2022-07-25", end="2022-09-08") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2022-07-25
WHO 宣告猴痘为 PHEIC Source →
2020-03-11
WHO 正式宣告 COVID-19 为大流行 Source →
2020-02-24
意大利疫情爆发，市场首次大跌 Source →
2020-01-31
WHO 宣告 COVID-19 为 PHEIC Source →
2014-08-08
WHO 宣告西非埃博拉为 PHEIC Source →
2009-04-27
WHO 提升 H1N1 至 4 级（人传人） Source →
2003-03-17
WHO 全球预警 SARS Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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