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Pelosi 访台,中国宣布大规模军演封锁

2022-08-02 geo political 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
+1.93% +4.78% +4.27%
DIA Dow 30
+1.02% +2.98% -4.50%
EEM Emerging Markets
+1.50% +3.02% -4.16%
EWJ Japan
-0.25% +0.90% -7.46%
FXI China Large Cap
+2.42% +1.04% -5.95%
GLD Gold
+1.90% +1.40% -5.00%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+0.92% -0.85% -5.07%
IWM Russell 2000
+1.26% +5.00% -4.28%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+3.20% +3.10% -7.96%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.17% -0.18% -1.09%
SLV Silver
+1.25% +1.41% -2.28%
SPY S&P 500
+1.50% +2.92% -5.13%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+1.54% -2.65% -8.68%
UNG Natural Gas
+6.66% +14.01% +2.04%
USO Crude Oil
-5.79% +0.46% -7.94%
UUP USD Index
-0.35% -0.78% +3.67%
VIXY VIX Futures
-4.66% -10.58% -2.63%
VTI Total US Market
+1.51% +3.23% -4.90%
XLB Materials
+0.17% +3.79% -4.97%
XLC Communication Services
+2.85% +4.13% -7.22%
XLE Energy
-6.47% +1.64% +2.38%
XLF Financials
+1.18% +5.90% +0.00%
XLI Industrials
+1.31% +3.83% -5.83%
XLK Technology
+3.13% +3.35% -9.92%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.01% +0.05% -4.66%
XLRE Real Estate
+0.51% +3.27% -6.94%
XLU Utilities
+0.84% +2.18% +0.80%
XLV Healthcare
+0.42% +0.75% -2.67%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
+2.86% +2.23% -2.82%

Taiwan Strait Tensions — Historical Asset Playbook

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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