AI Stock Monitor
Home · Hot Events · Data

Taiwan Strait Tensions — Historical Asset Playbook

How major assets moved at T+1 / T+5 / T+30 after past Taiwan Strait flare-ups

When Taiwan Strait headlines spike, what does it actually do to your SPY, gold, and Treasuries? This page answers with 30 years of comparable historical samples.

12 historical samples
Data updated 2024-05-23
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
+0.43%
range -3.5% / +1.4% · n=12
+0.80%
range -1.6% / +3.5% · n=12
-1.02%
range -5.3% / +9.4% · n=12
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+0.41%
range -8.5% / +1.9% · n=12
+1.18%
range -8.5% / +3.7% · n=12
+7.33%
range -7.9% / +11.1% · n=12
IWM Russell 2000
+0.68%
range -0.2% / +3.5% · n=12
+2.06%
range -0.8% / +11.1% · n=12
+2.10%
range -8.0% / +16.2% · n=12
GLD Gold
+0.72%
range -0.3% / +1.3% · n=12
+0.26%
range -3.4% / +2.2% · n=12
-2.68%
range -6.5% / +4.2% · n=12
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.03%
range -1.1% / +1.8% · n=12
-0.99%
range -3.1% / +2.5% · n=12
+0.87%
range -8.4% / +8.9% · n=12
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+0.01%
range -0.6% / +1.3% · n=12
-0.48%
range -1.1% / +1.7% · n=12
+0.07%
range -4.8% / +4.9% · n=12
USO Crude Oil
+0.53%
range -1.0% / +3.8% · n=12
+3.01%
range -0.5% / +7.2% · n=12
-0.32%
range -7.7% / +11.1% · n=12
UUP USD Index
+0.01%
range -0.7% / +0.6% · n=12
+0.26%
range -0.8% / +0.8% · n=12
+1.05%
range -1.5% / +3.9% · n=12
EEM Emerging Markets
+0.18%
range -0.9% / +2.3% · n=12
+1.85%
range -2.3% / +3.9% · n=12
-0.01%
range -5.6% / +12.2% · n=12
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.43%
-3.5 / +1.4
T+5
+0.80%
-1.6 / +3.5
T+30
-1.02%
-5.3 / +9.4
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+0.41%
-8.5 / +1.9
T+5
+1.18%
-8.5 / +3.7
T+30
+7.33%
-7.9 / +11.1
IWM Russell 2000
T+1
+0.68%
-0.2 / +3.5
T+5
+2.06%
-0.8 / +11.1
T+30
+2.10%
-8.0 / +16.2
GLD Gold
T+1
+0.72%
-0.3 / +1.3
T+5
+0.26%
-3.4 / +2.2
T+30
-2.68%
-6.5 / +4.2
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
-0.03%
-1.1 / +1.8
T+5
-0.99%
-3.1 / +2.5
T+30
+0.87%
-8.4 / +8.9
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.01%
-0.6 / +1.3
T+5
-0.48%
-1.1 / +1.7
T+30
+0.07%
-4.8 / +4.9
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+0.53%
-1.0 / +3.8
T+5
+3.01%
-0.5 / +7.2
T+30
-0.32%
-7.7 / +11.1
UUP USD Index
T+1
+0.01%
-0.7 / +0.6
T+5
+0.26%
-0.8 / +0.8
T+30
+1.05%
-1.5 / +3.9
EEM Emerging Markets
T+1
+0.18%
-0.9 / +2.3
T+5
+1.85%
-2.3 / +3.9
T+30
-0.01%
-5.6 / +12.2

✓ Live example · Most recent event

联合利剑-2024A 军演，赖清德就职后惩戒 (2024-05-23) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2024-05-23 SPY closed at $513.46 30 calendar days later 2024-07-08 closed at $543.84 Math: ($543.84 ÷ $513.46) − 1 = +5.92%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2024-05-23", end="2024-07-08") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
YOUR PORTFOLIO

Estimate how your portfolio reacts to this event

Enter your positions and instantly see the estimated 30-day P&L range under this event. No login required. We don't store inputs.

EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-05-23
联合利剑-2024A 军演，赖清德就职后惩戒 Source →
2024-01-15
赖清德当选台湾总统，中国警告 Source →
2023-04-10
联合利剑军演，对蔡英文过境美演习反应 Source →
2022-08-04
中国发射弹道导弹飞越台湾上空（前所未有） Source →
2022-08-02
Pelosi 访台，中国宣布大规模军演封锁 Source →
2021-10-04
解放军单日 56 架次绕台创纪录 Source →
2020-08-10
美卫生部长 Azar 访台，中国军演回应 Source →
2019-01-02
习近平《告台湾同胞书》40周年讲话，不放弃武力 Source →
2018-04-12
习近平海军南海阅兵后强硬讲话+对台军演 Source →
2005-03-14
中国通过《反分裂国家法》，明确武力选项 Source →
1996-03-08
中国在台湾大选前再次试射导弹，美航母进入台海 Source →
1995-07-21
中国向台湾近海试射导弹（第三次台海危机开始） Source →

Want to be alerted automatically when these events fire?

Sign up to AI Stock Monitor, link your real positions, and see the portfolio impact the moment the next event hits.

Sign up free
Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

© AI Stock Monitor