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中国发射弹道导弹飞越台湾上空(前所未有)

2022-08-04 geo political 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
+0.10% +2.29% +2.29%
DIA Dow 30
+0.32% +3.67% -4.82%
EEM Emerging Markets
+0.22% +2.10% -5.27%
EWJ Japan
-0.65% +2.89% -6.92%
FXI China Large Cap
-2.00% -1.31% -7.84%
GLD Gold
-0.29% -0.87% -6.71%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
-0.87% -1.06% -6.21%
IWM Russell 2000
+1.83% +6.19% -4.66%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-1.14% +2.67% -10.12%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
-0.31% -0.24% -1.37%
SLV Silver
+2.09% +0.21% -3.49%
SPY S&P 500
-0.28% +3.55% -5.80%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.80% -3.24% -9.86%
UNG Natural Gas
-6.71% +8.48% -2.91%
USO Crude Oil
+2.81% +1.89% -2.07%
UUP USD Index
+0.71% +0.85% +3.96%
VIXY VIX Futures
-2.00% -8.82% -1.10%
VTI Total US Market
+0.06% +3.87% -5.65%
XLB Materials
+0.91% +5.50% -3.56%
XLC Communication Services
-0.66% +3.41% -9.27%
XLE Energy
+2.51% +7.37% +9.53%
XLF Financials
+0.66% +6.28% -0.04%
XLI Industrials
+0.13% +4.28% -5.78%
XLK Technology
-1.08% +2.85% -11.94%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.28% +1.94% -4.02%
XLRE Real Estate
+1.06% +4.96% -7.59%
XLU Utilities
-0.21% +3.84% +1.30%
XLV Healthcare
+0.20% +2.12% -3.60%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-1.26% +2.35% -4.18%

Taiwan Strait Tensions — Historical Asset Playbook

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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