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Banking Crises — How Hard Financials, Bonds, and Gold React

Sector and safe-haven moves after Lehman, SVB, Credit Suisse, TARP-era shocks, and other systemic stress events

Banking shocks tend to move financials, Treasuries, gold, and risk assets harder than people expect in the moment. We assembled 8 historical bank shocks so you can size what your portfolio is positioned to absorb.

8 historical samples
Data updated 2023-05-01
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
-0.06%
range -3.6% / +2.0% · n=8
+1.47%
range -2.9% / +5.0% · n=8
+3.79%
range -20.3% / +8.3% · n=8
XLF Financials
-2.10%
range -4.3% / +4.7% · n=8
-0.10%
range -7.4% / +8.0% · n=8
-0.80%
range -26.1% / +9.6% · n=8
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+0.99%
range -0.8% / +3.1% · n=8
-0.07%
range -3.2% / +1.3% · n=8
-0.69%
range -2.7% / +5.8% · n=8
GLD Gold
+2.54%
range -2.4% / +6.2% · n=8
+2.83%
range -2.1% / +7.6% · n=8
+0.02%
range -13.0% / +4.2% · n=8
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+0.64%
range -3.9% / +2.3% · n=8
+2.63%
range -2.9% / +6.7% · n=8
+7.03%
range -21.7% / +15.7% · n=8
VIXY VIX Futures
-0.37%
range -1.7% / +4.4% · n=8
-9.76%
range -9.8% / +1.4% · n=8
-20.56%
range -27.9% / -1.8% · n=8
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+0.71%
range -0.2% / +1.9% · n=8
+0.22%
range -2.6% / +1.7% · n=8
+0.12%
range -3.0% / +2.9% · n=8
XLU Utilities
-0.27%
range -5.3% / +1.8% · n=8
+0.12%
range -5.1% / +6.1% · n=8
+3.40%
range -11.8% / +9.8% · n=8
USO Crude Oil
-1.74%
range -6.2% / +1.1% · n=8
-0.84%
range -10.2% / +8.9% · n=8
-2.81%
range -32.5% / +9.2% · n=8
SPY S&P 500
T+1
-0.06%
-3.6 / +2.0
T+5
+1.47%
-2.9 / +5.0
T+30
+3.79%
-20.3 / +8.3
XLF Financials
T+1
-2.10%
-4.3 / +4.7
T+5
-0.10%
-7.4 / +8.0
T+30
-0.80%
-26.1 / +9.6
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.99%
-0.8 / +3.1
T+5
-0.07%
-3.2 / +1.3
T+30
-0.69%
-2.7 / +5.8
GLD Gold
T+1
+2.54%
-2.4 / +6.2
T+5
+2.83%
-2.1 / +7.6
T+30
+0.02%
-13.0 / +4.2
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+0.64%
-3.9 / +2.3
T+5
+2.63%
-2.9 / +6.7
T+30
+7.03%
-21.7 / +15.7
VIXY VIX Futures
T+1
-0.37%
-1.7 / +4.4
T+5
-9.76%
-9.8 / +1.4
T+30
-20.56%
-27.9 / -1.8
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.71%
-0.2 / +1.9
T+5
+0.22%
-2.6 / +1.7
T+30
+0.12%
-3.0 / +2.9
XLU Utilities
T+1
-0.27%
-5.3 / +1.8
T+5
+0.12%
-5.1 / +6.1
T+30
+3.40%
-11.8 / +9.8
USO Crude Oil
T+1
-1.74%
-6.2 / +1.1
T+5
-0.84%
-10.2 / +8.9
T+30
-2.81%
-32.5 / +9.2

✓ Live example · Most recent event

First Republic Bank 倒闭，JPM 接管 (2023-05-01) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2023-05-01 SPY closed at $399.85 30 calendar days later 2023-06-15 closed at $425.92 Math: ($425.92 ÷ $399.85) − 1 = +6.52%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2023-05-01", end="2023-06-15") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2023-05-01
First Republic Bank 倒闭，JPM 接管 Source →
2023-03-15
Credit Suisse 危机，UBS 紧急收购 Source →
2023-03-10
Silicon Valley Bank 倒闭，区域银行危机 Source →
2011-08-08
S&P 首次下调美国主权评级 (AAA→AA+) Source →
2010-05-06
美股闪崩，道琼斯 5 分钟暴跌 9% Source →
2008-10-03
TARP 紧急救助计划签署 ($7000 亿) Source →
2008-09-15
Lehman Brothers 破产，全球金融危机引爆 Source →
2008-03-17
Bear Stearns 倒闭，JPM 收购 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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