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Russia-Ukraine War — Energy, Gold, and Risk-Sentiment Inflection Points

How crude, gold, European equities, and EM moved around invasion, SWIFT ban, mobilization, and Wagner mutiny

Energy, gold, European equities, and emerging markets each react non-linearly to escalation points in the Russia-Ukraine war. We assembled 5 historical inflection points so you can quantify the size of move your portfolio is likely to absorb.

5 historical samples
Data updated 2024-06-17
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
USO Crude Oil
+1.72%
range -3.1% / +4.0% · n=5
+1.30%
range -2.5% / +15.7% · n=5
+8.98%
range +1.5% / +15.6% · n=5
GLD Gold
+0.70%
range -1.3% / +2.0% · n=5
-0.38%
range -0.9% / +4.3% · n=5
+2.72%
range -0.3% / +4.3% · n=5
SPY S&P 500
-0.02%
range -2.0% / +1.6% · n=5
-2.07%
range -4.8% / +1.6% · n=5
+0.68%
range -0.1% / +3.2% · n=5
EEM Emerging Markets
+0.41%
range -3.2% / +0.7% · n=5
-5.91%
range -7.7% / +0.7% · n=5
-2.29%
range -4.6% / +1.0% · n=5
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+0.25%
range -1.2% / +2.6% · n=5
-1.14%
range -3.9% / +0.9% · n=5
-9.71%
range -12.7% / -1.4% · n=5
UUP USD Index
+0.38%
range -0.1% / +1.5% · n=5
+1.14%
range +0.8% / +2.0% · n=5
+0.67%
range -0.4% / +3.2% · n=5
XLE Energy
+2.27%
range -3.8% / +4.4% · n=5
+3.45%
range -2.0% / +10.4% · n=5
+12.43%
range +7.0% / +19.9% · n=5
VIXY VIX Futures
+2.80%
range -3.4% / +5.2% · n=5
+5.44%
range -3.9% / +16.1% · n=5
-9.14%
range -16.5% / +5.2% · n=5
DBA Agriculture
-1.69%
range -2.0% / +0.5% · n=5
-1.26%
range -4.4% / +3.4% · n=5
-0.46%
range -5.7% / +6.3% · n=5
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+1.72%
-3.1 / +4.0
T+5
+1.30%
-2.5 / +15.7
T+30
+8.98%
+1.5 / +15.6
GLD Gold
T+1
+0.70%
-1.3 / +2.0
T+5
-0.38%
-0.9 / +4.3
T+30
+2.72%
-0.3 / +4.3
SPY S&P 500
T+1
-0.02%
-2.0 / +1.6
T+5
-2.07%
-4.8 / +1.6
T+30
+0.68%
-0.1 / +3.2
EEM Emerging Markets
T+1
+0.41%
-3.2 / +0.7
T+5
-5.91%
-7.7 / +0.7
T+30
-2.29%
-4.6 / +1.0
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.25%
-1.2 / +2.6
T+5
-1.14%
-3.9 / +0.9
T+30
-9.71%
-12.7 / -1.4
UUP USD Index
T+1
+0.38%
-0.1 / +1.5
T+5
+1.14%
+0.8 / +2.0
T+30
+0.67%
-0.4 / +3.2
XLE Energy
T+1
+2.27%
-3.8 / +4.4
T+5
+3.45%
-2.0 / +10.4
T+30
+12.43%
+7.0 / +19.9
VIXY VIX Futures
T+1
+2.80%
-3.4 / +5.2
T+5
+5.44%
-3.9 / +16.1
T+30
-9.14%
-16.5 / +5.2
DBA Agriculture
T+1
-1.69%
-2.0 / +0.5
T+5
-1.26%
-4.4 / +3.4
T+30
-0.46%
-5.7 / +6.3

✓ Live example · Most recent event

Putin 提出停火条件 + 和平峰会 (2024-06-17) after USO — real close prices for
Event day 2024-06-17 USO closed at $77.79 30 calendar days later 2024-08-01 closed at $76.29 Math: ($76.29 ÷ $77.79) − 1 = -1.93%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("USO", start="2024-06-17", end="2024-08-01") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-06-17
Putin 提出停火条件 + 和平峰会 Source →
2023-06-26
Wagner 兵变向莫斯科推进 Source →
2022-09-21
Putin 宣布部分动员 + 核威慑 Source →
2022-03-02
西方对俄实施 SWIFT 禁运 + 央行制裁 Source →
2022-02-24
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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