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Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns

Bonds, equities, financials, and gold T+1 / T+5 / T+30 around hike, cut, QE, and taper decisions

When the Fed pivots, bonds, growth stocks, financials, and gold rarely behave the way the pre-meeting consensus had them priced. This page uses 12 historical pivots to size what your portfolio might face at the next decision.

12 historical samples
Data updated 2024-09-18
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
-1.00%
range -3.3% / +2.2% · n=12
-0.15%
range -1.9% / +4.2% · n=12
+1.36%
range -8.8% / +8.9% · n=12
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-1.12%
range -3.3% / +3.2% · n=12
-0.61%
range -2.4% / +5.6% · n=12
+1.71%
range -7.9% / +11.5% · n=12
IWM Russell 2000
+0.19%
range -3.9% / +2.5% · n=12
+0.35%
range -0.9% / +4.1% · n=12
+1.32%
range -9.8% / +12.3% · n=12
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+0.44%
range -1.0% / +2.8% · n=12
-0.47%
range -3.1% / +3.9% · n=12
-3.65%
range -10.3% / +4.9% · n=12
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+0.26%
range -0.3% / +1.3% · n=12
-0.16%
range -2.2% / +1.6% · n=12
-1.47%
range -5.0% / +3.0% · n=12
GLD Gold
+0.70%
range -0.7% / +3.6% · n=12
+1.56%
range -0.4% / +6.7% · n=12
+3.92%
range -6.7% / +8.0% · n=12
XLF Financials
-2.27%
range -3.8% / +1.4% · n=12
+0.95%
range -3.6% / +3.2% · n=12
+1.95%
range -22.3% / +11.0% · n=12
XLK Technology
-0.85%
range -4.6% / +2.7% · n=12
-0.68%
range -2.7% / +5.4% · n=12
+1.01%
range -7.4% / +11.8% · n=12
UUP USD Index
-0.04%
range -0.8% / +0.7% · n=12
-0.42%
range -1.2% / +2.0% · n=12
+0.86%
range -0.4% / +6.9% · n=12
SPY S&P 500
T+1
-1.00%
-3.3 / +2.2
T+5
-0.15%
-1.9 / +4.2
T+30
+1.36%
-8.8 / +8.9
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
-1.12%
-3.3 / +3.2
T+5
-0.61%
-2.4 / +5.6
T+30
+1.71%
-7.9 / +11.5
IWM Russell 2000
T+1
+0.19%
-3.9 / +2.5
T+5
+0.35%
-0.9 / +4.1
T+30
+1.32%
-9.8 / +12.3
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.44%
-1.0 / +2.8
T+5
-0.47%
-3.1 / +3.9
T+30
-3.65%
-10.3 / +4.9
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.26%
-0.3 / +1.3
T+5
-0.16%
-2.2 / +1.6
T+30
-1.47%
-5.0 / +3.0
GLD Gold
T+1
+0.70%
-0.7 / +3.6
T+5
+1.56%
-0.4 / +6.7
T+30
+3.92%
-6.7 / +8.0
XLF Financials
T+1
-2.27%
-3.8 / +1.4
T+5
+0.95%
-3.6 / +3.2
T+30
+1.95%
-22.3 / +11.0
XLK Technology
T+1
-0.85%
-4.6 / +2.7
T+5
-0.68%
-2.7 / +5.4
T+30
+1.01%
-7.4 / +11.8
UUP USD Index
T+1
-0.04%
-0.8 / +0.7
T+5
-0.42%
-1.2 / +2.0
T+30
+0.86%
-0.4 / +6.9

✓ Live example · Most recent event

Fed 新周期首次降息 50bp (2024-09-18) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2024-09-18 SPY closed at $549.83 30 calendar days later 2024-11-04 closed at $559.78 Math: ($559.78 ÷ $549.83) − 1 = +1.81%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2024-09-18", end="2024-11-04") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-09-18
Fed 新周期首次降息 50bp Source →
2023-03-22
SVB 倒闭后 Fed 仍加息 25bp Source →
2022-06-15
Fed 单次 75bp 加息 (1994 以来最大) Source →
2022-03-16
Fed 后疫情首次加息 25bp Source →
2020-03-16
Fed 紧急降至 0% + 7000 亿美元 QE (COVID) Source →
2019-07-31
Fed 自 2008 来首次降息 (insurance cut) Source →
2018-12-19
Fed 顶住市场压力继续加息 Source →
2015-12-16
Fed 自 2006 来首次加息 25bp Source →
2013-05-22
Bernanke 'taper' 暗示，新兴市场暴跌 Source →
2010-11-03
QE2 启动，6000 亿美元国债购买 Source →
2008-12-16
Fed 降至 0-0.25% 零利率下限 Source →
2008-09-16
Fed 雷曼后紧急降息 50bp Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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