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Fed 自 2008 来首次降息 (insurance cut)

2019-07-31 monetary 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
-1.32% -1.19% -2.20%
DIA Dow 30
-1.38% -1.99% +1.25%
EEM Emerging Markets
-2.92% -4.55% +0.34%
EWJ Japan
-0.53% -1.44% +4.08%
FXI China Large Cap
-3.02% -5.74% +0.88%
GLD Gold
+2.01% +6.04% +6.09%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+1.34% +2.24% +1.36%
IWM Russell 2000
-2.54% -3.79% +0.86%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-1.96% -2.41% +0.30%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.31% +0.47% +0.35%
SLV Silver
-0.13% +4.47% +10.06%
SPY S&P 500
-1.62% -1.95% +0.92%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+2.93% +5.60% +4.45%
UNG Natural Gas
-4.32% -5.14% +19.70%
USO Crude Oil
-4.65% -6.31% +6.56%
UUP USD Index
-0.52% -1.01% +0.41%
VIXY VIX Futures
+8.51% +14.18% -0.77%
VTI Total US Market
-1.73% -2.16% +0.62%
XLB Materials
-1.73% -1.05% -0.29%
XLC Communication Services
-1.44% -2.28% +0.63%
XLE Energy
-3.67% -5.74% +0.69%
XLF Financials
-2.30% -3.82% +0.50%
XLI Industrials
-2.57% -3.08% +1.88%
XLK Technology
-2.13% -2.82% +0.24%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.34% -0.19% +1.72%
XLRE Real Estate
+1.02% +2.83% +4.22%
XLU Utilities
+1.01% +2.22% +5.78%
XLV Healthcare
-0.10% +0.29% +0.19%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-2.17% -2.01% +0.93%

Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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