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Fed 降至 0-0.25% 零利率下限

2008-12-16 monetary 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
+0.33% +4.40% +1.51%
DIA Dow 30
-3.58% -4.73% -10.16%
EEM Emerging Markets
-3.90% -7.59% -12.93%
EWJ Japan
-3.67% -2.98% -10.81%
FXI China Large Cap
-2.21% -9.36% -18.89%
GLD Gold
-0.70% +1.35% +8.11%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+1.36% +1.15% -3.51%
IWM Russell 2000
+0.27% -0.86% -7.27%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-2.95% -4.54% -4.77%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
-0.16% -0.28% -0.45%
SLV Silver
-1.72% -3.54% +13.51%
SPY S&P 500
-2.82% -4.37% -9.12%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+4.87% +4.16% -10.62%
UNG Natural Gas
-3.89% -0.41% -24.93%
USO Crude Oil
-10.18% -20.14% -19.81%
UUP USD Index
+0.49% +1.32% +7.01%
VIXY VIX Futures
-1.70% -9.76% -20.56%
VTI Total US Market
-2.45% -3.55% -8.41%
XLB Materials
-3.76% -8.30% -12.85%
XLC Communication Services
+0.62% -0.74% -2.10%
XLE Energy
-6.43% -8.28% -4.70%
XLF Financials
-3.79% -7.53% -27.47%
XLI Industrials
-3.47% -2.88% -10.92%
XLK Technology
-4.70% -6.01% -7.59%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.17% -0.60% -5.58%
XLRE Real Estate
+0.46% +2.62% +2.35%
XLU Utilities
-2.21% -3.35% -0.25%
XLV Healthcare
+0.12% -0.20% +1.27%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-2.27% -4.56% -11.62%

Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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