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Fed 新周期首次降息 50bp

2024-09-18 monetary 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
-0.70% +3.55% -1.17%
DIA Dow 30
+1.35% +1.93% +0.78%
EEM Emerging Markets
+1.91% +8.72% +4.36%
EWJ Japan
+2.71% +2.44% -1.95%
FXI China Large Cap
+3.67% +22.83% +21.69%
GLD Gold
+2.84% +4.04% +7.35%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
-0.11% -0.14% -3.85%
IWM Russell 2000
+0.97% +0.74% +0.63%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+2.33% +3.39% +3.24%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.12% +0.19% -0.54%
SLV Silver
+4.30% +5.95% +8.77%
SPY S&P 500
+1.53% +2.11% +1.81%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.71% -1.02% -6.76%
UNG Natural Gas
+6.23% +13.37% -9.56%
USO Crude Oil
+3.20% -0.55% +5.14%
UUP USD Index
-0.25% -0.50% +3.54%
VIXY VIX Futures
-4.39% +1.71% +9.19%
VTI Total US Market
+1.48% +2.01% +1.89%
XLB Materials
+0.79% +4.31% +0.67%
XLC Communication Services
+1.36% +2.93% +5.31%
XLE Energy
+0.97% +0.00% +2.73%
XLF Financials
+1.04% +0.27% +2.78%
XLI Industrials
+1.01% +2.59% +1.85%
XLK Technology
+2.47% +3.84% +3.21%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.11% +0.39% -2.82%
XLRE Real Estate
-0.42% -0.60% -3.00%
XLU Utilities
+2.04% +3.17% -0.96%
XLV Healthcare
-0.05% -1.14% -5.18%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
+2.04% +4.41% +3.66%

Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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