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Fed 自 2006 来首次加息 25bp

2015-12-16 monetary 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
+0.89% +0.79% -0.69%
DIA Dow 30
-3.51% -1.27% -7.22%
EEM Emerging Markets
-1.63% +0.27% -7.35%
EWJ Japan
-2.18% -1.22% -6.92%
FXI China Large Cap
-0.28% +1.06% -13.98%
GLD Gold
-0.69% -0.47% +5.16%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+0.78% +0.52% +3.24%
IWM Russell 2000
-2.58% +0.03% -10.05%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-3.35% -0.97% -8.12%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.13% +0.04% +0.59%
SLV Silver
-0.44% -1.48% +1.33%
SPY S&P 500
-3.28% -0.77% -6.36%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+1.69% +1.04% +4.95%
UNG Natural Gas
-2.66% +17.76% +10.07%
USO Crude Oil
-3.00% -0.55% -17.93%
UUP USD Index
+0.35% -0.35% +0.59%
VIXY VIX Futures
+12.85% +0.23% +22.98%
VTI Total US Market
-3.14% -0.60% -6.90%
XLB Materials
-3.32% +0.18% -10.96%
XLC Communication Services
+0.62% -0.74% -2.10%
XLE Energy
-4.16% -1.46% -6.69%
XLF Financials
-4.07% -1.23% -10.94%
XLI Industrials
-3.16% -0.16% -6.66%
XLK Technology
-3.48% -1.08% -5.27%
XLP Consumer Staples
-3.04% -0.17% +0.09%
XLRE Real Estate
-1.43% +0.45% -3.18%
XLU Utilities
-1.04% +1.38% +6.74%
XLV Healthcare
-2.51% -0.27% -7.93%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-3.19% -1.50% -6.66%

Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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