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Oil Shocks — How Crude Reshapes the Tape

Energy stocks, the broad market, and inflation hedges after OPEC cuts, geopolitical disruptions, and demand collapses

Oil shocks pull energy stocks, airlines, consumer names, and Treasuries in different directions at the same time. We catalogued 10 historical shocks so you can quantify what your portfolio is likely to do when crude moves.

10 historical samples
Data updated 2023-10-09
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
USO Crude Oil
+0.90%
range -15.3% / +7.0% · n=10
-7.28%
range -29.0% / +17.8% · n=10
-9.50%
range -34.7% / +10.4% · n=10
XLE Energy
+0.51%
range -1.2% / +5.4% · n=10
+0.31%
range -7.1% / +14.2% · n=10
+0.36%
range -7.6% / +21.2% · n=10
SPY S&P 500
+0.62%
range -0.9% / +2.3% · n=10
+0.75%
range -3.1% / +4.5% · n=10
+2.85%
range +1.2% / +8.3% · n=10
XLI Industrials
+0.83%
range -1.3% / +1.9% · n=10
+1.57%
range -3.3% / +5.6% · n=10
+2.29%
range -3.1% / +12.9% · n=10
XLY Consumer Discretionary
+0.64%
range -0.6% / +3.1% · n=10
+0.17%
range -6.9% / +6.1% · n=10
+6.01%
range -0.6% / +11.8% · n=10
GLD Gold
+0.52%
range -2.5% / +1.5% · n=10
+0.82%
range -6.1% / +4.7% · n=10
+1.97%
range -6.8% / +8.1% · n=10
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+0.21%
range -3.0% / +2.0% · n=10
-0.87%
range -5.5% / +1.9% · n=10
+1.83%
range -10.0% / +4.3% · n=10
UUP USD Index
-0.21%
range -0.5% / +0.6% · n=10
+0.51%
range -0.6% / +2.7% · n=10
+1.92%
range -2.3% / +5.9% · n=10
USO Crude Oil
T+1
+0.90%
-15.3 / +7.0
T+5
-7.28%
-29.0 / +17.8
T+30
-9.50%
-34.7 / +10.4
XLE Energy
T+1
+0.51%
-1.2 / +5.4
T+5
+0.31%
-7.1 / +14.2
T+30
+0.36%
-7.6 / +21.2
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.62%
-0.9 / +2.3
T+5
+0.75%
-3.1 / +4.5
T+30
+2.85%
+1.2 / +8.3
XLI Industrials
T+1
+0.83%
-1.3 / +1.9
T+5
+1.57%
-3.3 / +5.6
T+30
+2.29%
-3.1 / +12.9
XLY Consumer Discretionary
T+1
+0.64%
-0.6 / +3.1
T+5
+0.17%
-6.9 / +6.1
T+30
+6.01%
-0.6 / +11.8
GLD Gold
T+1
+0.52%
-2.5 / +1.5
T+5
+0.82%
-6.1 / +4.7
T+30
+1.97%
-6.8 / +8.1
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
+0.21%
-3.0 / +2.0
T+5
-0.87%
-5.5 / +1.9
T+30
+1.83%
-10.0 / +4.3
UUP USD Index
T+1
-0.21%
-0.5 / +0.6
T+5
+0.51%
-0.6 / +2.7
T+30
+1.92%
-2.3 / +5.9

✓ Live example · Most recent event

哈马斯袭以色列，地缘溢价回归 (2023-10-09) after USO — real close prices for
Event day 2023-10-09 USO closed at $77.13 30 calendar days later 2023-11-24 closed at $70.82 Math: ($70.82 ÷ $77.13) − 1 = -8.18%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("USO", start="2023-10-09", end="2023-11-24") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2023-10-09
哈马斯袭以色列，地缘溢价回归 Source →
2022-03-08
美英讨论俄油禁令，WTI 一度触 $130 Source →
2022-02-24
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，油价突破 $100 Source →
2020-04-20
WTI 期货首次跌至负值 Source →
2020-03-09
沙特俄罗斯油价战 + COVID 需求崩塌 Source →
2019-09-16
沙特 Abqaiq 设施遭无人机袭击 (-5% 全球供应) Source →
2018-05-08
Trump 退出伊朗核协议 Source →
2016-01-20
WTI 触底 $26.05 Source →
2014-11-27
OPEC 拒绝减产，页岩气价格战 (-50% 半年) Source →
2008-07-11
WTI 原油触及 $147.27 历史高点 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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