AI Stock Monitor
Home · Hot Events · Data

US-China Tariff Escalation — Asymmetric Sector Reactions

Semis, China-internet, industrials, and ag commodities after past trade-war, sanctions, and export-control moves

New tariffs or export controls hit semis, China-internet ADRs, industrials, and ag commodities in markedly different ways. Here are 10 historical escalations sized so you can see what your portfolio is likely to do next round.

10 historical samples
Data updated 2024-05-14
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
+0.72%
range -2.6% / +1.2% · n=10
+0.37%
range -2.3% / +2.3% · n=10
+2.11%
range -6.3% / +4.8% · n=10
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+0.94%
range -3.6% / +1.6% · n=10
+1.13%
range -3.2% / +2.2% · n=10
+2.02%
range -5.9% / +5.0% · n=10
XLK Technology
+0.89%
range -4.0% / +2.1% · n=10
+1.53%
range -3.3% / +2.6% · n=10
+2.95%
range -6.1% / +8.3% · n=10
FXI China Large Cap
+1.26%
range -3.4% / +2.3% · n=10
-2.02%
range -5.0% / +0.4% · n=10
-2.17%
range -8.1% / +3.3% · n=10
EEM Emerging Markets
+0.88%
range -3.5% / +1.7% · n=10
-1.17%
range -3.9% / +1.3% · n=10
-1.36%
range -9.4% / +4.2% · n=10
XLI Industrials
+0.55%
range -2.9% / +1.9% · n=10
+0.60%
range -2.2% / +2.4% · n=10
-0.08%
range -9.6% / +7.5% · n=10
DBA Agriculture
-0.20%
range -0.9% / +1.4% · n=10
-0.67%
range -3.2% / +3.5% · n=10
+0.46%
range -3.9% / +4.8% · n=10
GLD Gold
+0.14%
range -0.6% / +1.1% · n=10
-0.35%
range -2.0% / +1.4% · n=10
+0.35%
range -5.5% / +4.3% · n=10
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.72%
-2.6 / +1.2
T+5
+0.37%
-2.3 / +2.3
T+30
+2.11%
-6.3 / +4.8
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
+0.94%
-3.6 / +1.6
T+5
+1.13%
-3.2 / +2.2
T+30
+2.02%
-5.9 / +5.0
XLK Technology
T+1
+0.89%
-4.0 / +2.1
T+5
+1.53%
-3.3 / +2.6
T+30
+2.95%
-6.1 / +8.3
FXI China Large Cap
T+1
+1.26%
-3.4 / +2.3
T+5
-2.02%
-5.0 / +0.4
T+30
-2.17%
-8.1 / +3.3
EEM Emerging Markets
T+1
+0.88%
-3.5 / +1.7
T+5
-1.17%
-3.9 / +1.3
T+30
-1.36%
-9.4 / +4.2
XLI Industrials
T+1
+0.55%
-2.9 / +1.9
T+5
+0.60%
-2.2 / +2.4
T+30
-0.08%
-9.6 / +7.5
DBA Agriculture
T+1
-0.20%
-0.9 / +1.4
T+5
-0.67%
-3.2 / +3.5
T+30
+0.46%
-3.9 / +4.8
GLD Gold
T+1
+0.14%
-0.6 / +1.1
T+5
-0.35%
-2.0 / +1.4
T+30
+0.35%
-5.5 / +4.3

✓ Live example · Most recent event

Biden 对中国电动车征 100% 关税 (2024-05-14) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2024-05-14 SPY closed at $510.87 30 calendar days later 2024-06-28 closed at $533.00 Math: ($533.00 ÷ $510.87) − 1 = +4.33%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2024-05-14", end="2024-06-28") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
YOUR PORTFOLIO

Estimate how your portfolio reacts to this event

Enter your positions and instantly see the estimated 30-day P&L range under this event. No login required. We don't store inputs.

EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-05-14
Biden 对中国电动车征 100% 关税 Source →
2022-10-07
Biden 半导体出口管制大幅扩展 Source →
2022-08-09
CHIPS Act 签署，半导体出口管制 Source →
2020-01-15
第一阶段贸易协议签署 Source →
2019-08-23
中国反击，Trump 进一步加征 Source →
2019-08-01
Trump 宣布对剩余 3000 亿征 10% Source →
2019-05-10
关税从 10% 提至 25%，威胁加征 3000 亿 Source →
2018-09-24
对 2000 亿美元中国进口商品加征关税 Source →
2018-07-06
首批 340 亿美元关税生效 Source →
2018-03-22
Trump 签署 301 备忘录，对华 600 亿美元关税 Source →

Want to be alerted automatically when these events fire?

Sign up to AI Stock Monitor, link your real positions, and see the portfolio impact the moment the next event hits.

Sign up free
Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

© AI Stock Monitor