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US Election Uncertainty — Volatility, Dollar, and EM Reactions

How VIX, defensives, the dollar, and emerging markets moved through Bush v. Gore, Trump's election, Biden's withdrawal, and other late-cycle shocks

Late-stage US election uncertainty splits VIX, defensive equities, the dollar, and emerging markets onto very different paths. We pulled 7 historical episodes to quantify what your portfolio is likely to do next time.

7 historical samples
Data updated 2024-11-06
Sources SEC · central banks · Reuters · GDELT
Method historical analogs + Monte Carlo
HISTORICAL ANALOGS

Asset performance distribution after the event

Each row is one asset; the three columns are median returns at 1, 5, and 30 trading days after the event. Sample size in parentheses. Green = positive, red = negative.

Asset T+1 median T+5 median T+30 median
SPY S&P 500
+0.02%
range -3.2% / +1.3% · n=7
+0.49%
range -1.7% / +1.8% · n=7
+4.52%
range -2.8% / +7.1% · n=7
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-1.57%
range -4.4% / +1.8% · n=7
-0.28%
range -2.9% / +3.2% · n=7
+3.59%
range -10.5% / +8.2% · n=7
VIXY VIX Futures
-1.70%
range -5.1% / +13.7% · n=7
-6.05%
range -8.4% / +2.5% · n=7
-15.91%
range -25.8% / +5.6% · n=7
GLD Gold
-0.10%
range -2.4% / +1.1% · n=7
+0.15%
range -4.3% / +2.2% · n=7
-1.93%
range -6.4% / +4.4% · n=7
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-0.22%
range -1.6% / +2.1% · n=7
+1.11%
range -2.8% / +2.5% · n=7
-0.59%
range -5.2% / +8.7% · n=7
UUP USD Index
+0.14%
range -0.3% / +0.5% · n=7
+0.36%
range -0.9% / +2.1% · n=7
-2.29%
range -2.9% / +3.9% · n=7
EEM Emerging Markets
-0.50%
range -3.3% / +1.4% · n=7
+0.93%
range -4.3% / +3.1% · n=7
+4.95%
range -3.7% / +12.1% · n=7
XLF Financials
-0.38%
range -2.4% / +3.5% · n=7
+1.18%
range -1.9% / +4.5% · n=7
+7.76%
range +1.4% / +14.9% · n=7
XLK Technology
-1.31%
range -5.5% / +1.6% · n=7
-0.26%
range -3.5% / +2.4% · n=7
+4.30%
range -13.5% / +7.9% · n=7
SPY S&P 500
T+1
+0.02%
-3.2 / +1.3
T+5
+0.49%
-1.7 / +1.8
T+30
+4.52%
-2.8 / +7.1
QQQ Nasdaq 100
T+1
-1.57%
-4.4 / +1.8
T+5
-0.28%
-2.9 / +3.2
T+30
+3.59%
-10.5 / +8.2
VIXY VIX Futures
T+1
-1.70%
-5.1 / +13.7
T+5
-6.05%
-8.4 / +2.5
T+30
-15.91%
-25.8 / +5.6
GLD Gold
T+1
-0.10%
-2.4 / +1.1
T+5
+0.15%
-4.3 / +2.2
T+30
-1.93%
-6.4 / +4.4
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
T+1
-0.22%
-1.6 / +2.1
T+5
+1.11%
-2.8 / +2.5
T+30
-0.59%
-5.2 / +8.7
UUP USD Index
T+1
+0.14%
-0.3 / +0.5
T+5
+0.36%
-0.9 / +2.1
T+30
-2.29%
-2.9 / +3.9
EEM Emerging Markets
T+1
-0.50%
-3.3 / +1.4
T+5
+0.93%
-4.3 / +3.1
T+30
+4.95%
-3.7 / +12.1
XLF Financials
T+1
-0.38%
-2.4 / +3.5
T+5
+1.18%
-1.9 / +4.5
T+30
+7.76%
+1.4 / +14.9
XLK Technology
T+1
-1.31%
-5.5 / +1.6
T+5
-0.26%
-3.5 / +2.4
T+30
+4.30%
-13.5 / +7.9

✓ Live example · Most recent event

Trump 二次当选，市场强反应 (2024-11-06) after SPY — real close prices for
Event day 2024-11-06 SPY closed at $580.63 30 calendar days later 2024-12-23 closed at $586.19 Math: ($586.19 ÷ $580.63) − 1 = +0.96%
You can replicate this with yfinance.download("SPY", start="2024-11-06", end="2024-12-23") yourself.
Or see all asset returns from this event →
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EVENT TIMELINE

Past events in this category

Every number on this page is aggregated from the events below. Click an event to see its per-asset returns, or click a source to verify the original report.

2024-11-06
Trump 二次当选，市场强反应 Source →
2024-07-22
Biden 退选支持 Harris Source →
2020-11-23
GSA 接受过渡，不确定性缓解 Source →
2020-11-09
Biden 胜选 + Pfizer 疫苗利好 Source →
2020-10-26
选前不确定性上升，VIX 飙升 Source →
2016-11-09
Trump 当选意外，盘后期货 -5% Source →
2000-11-08
Bush v Gore 选票争议爆发 Source →

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice.

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