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Biden 退选支持 Harris

2024-07-22 geo political 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
-0.74% -2.18% +0.91%
DIA Dow 30
-1.36% +1.07% +1.15%
EEM Emerging Markets
-2.32% -0.35% -1.25%
EWJ Japan
-2.05% +0.95% +0.40%
FXI China Large Cap
-2.50% -2.58% -1.93%
GLD Gold
+0.00% +2.14% +4.76%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
-0.15% +1.67% +4.57%
IWM Russell 2000
-1.11% +1.62% -3.80%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
-3.93% -2.33% -4.41%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.10% +0.50% +1.76%
SLV Silver
-0.75% -0.90% -1.50%
SPY S&P 500
-2.42% -0.69% -0.91%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
-1.22% +2.33% +8.18%
UNG Natural Gas
-4.66% -9.79% -5.53%
USO Crude Oil
-1.04% +0.15% -9.96%
UUP USD Index
+0.14% -0.14% -2.29%
VIXY VIX Futures
+12.86% +5.92% +19.61%
VTI Total US Market
-2.32% -0.48% -1.08%
XLB Materials
-0.88% +1.91% +0.70%
XLC Communication Services
-2.75% +0.37% +0.11%
XLE Energy
-1.58% +1.55% -5.11%
XLF Financials
-1.18% +1.51% +4.32%
XLI Industrials
-2.34% +1.36% +0.82%
XLK Technology
-4.52% -3.23% -7.41%
XLP Consumer Staples
-0.45% -0.37% +6.42%
XLRE Real Estate
-1.54% +0.68% +6.65%
XLU Utilities
+0.49% +2.93% +8.37%
XLV Healthcare
+0.77% +0.61% +3.87%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
-4.52% -1.26% -1.45%

US Election Uncertainty — Volatility, Dollar, and EM Reactions

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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