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Trump 二次当选,市场强反应

2024-11-06 geo political 29 Source →
Asset returns after this event

Asset returns after this event

Asset T+1 T+5 T+30
DBA Agriculture
+1.27% +3.38% +9.22%
DIA Dow 30
+0.66% -0.56% -1.56%
EEM Emerging Markets
-0.31% -4.11% -3.49%
EWJ Japan
+0.07% -2.72% -2.67%
FXI China Large Cap
-0.66% -4.83% -1.64%
GLD Gold
+0.92% -3.71% -1.93%
IEF 7-10yr Treasuries
+1.02% +0.08% -0.49%
IWM Russell 2000
+0.38% -3.68% -6.39%
QQQ Nasdaq 100
+1.69% -1.78% +3.59%
SHY 1-3yr Treasuries
+0.10% +0.04% +0.35%
SLV Silver
+0.18% -3.02% -5.07%
SPY S&P 500
+1.21% -0.90% +0.96%
TLT 20+yr Treasuries
+2.54% -0.13% -2.28%
UNG Natural Gas
-2.64% +3.89% +21.45%
USO Crude Oil
-1.89% -6.43% -1.99%
UUP USD Index
-0.14% +1.76% +3.56%
VIXY VIX Futures
-3.47% +0.24% -3.72%
VTI Total US Market
+1.17% -1.01% +0.57%
XLB Materials
-0.53% -3.89% -9.96%
XLC Communication Services
+0.82% -0.26% +3.24%
XLE Energy
+0.20% +1.25% -9.54%
XLF Financials
-0.73% +0.65% -1.86%
XLI Industrials
+0.47% -1.64% -5.40%
XLK Technology
+1.63% -1.99% +2.19%
XLP Consumer Staples
+1.58% +0.50% -0.05%
XLRE Real Estate
+2.98% +0.80% -3.90%
XLU Utilities
+2.10% +2.19% -1.11%
XLV Healthcare
+1.45% -4.19% -5.85%
XLY Consumer Discretionary
+2.72% +1.92% +9.64%

US Election Uncertainty — Volatility, Dollar, and EM Reactions

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Methodology: historical analogs are built from a curated event list and yfinance total-return data. The Monte Carlo uses joint sampling — entire asset-return vectors drawn from the same historical event so cross-asset correlations are preserved. This page is informational and does not constitute investment advice. Read the full methodology →

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