GEO POLITICAL
12 samples
· through 2024-05-23
Taiwan Strait Tensions — Historical Asset Playbook
How major assets moved at T+1 / T+5 / T+30 after past Taiwan Strait flare-ups
When Taiwan Strait headlines spike, what does it actually do to your SPY, gold, and Treasuries? This page answers with 30 years of comparable historical samples.
MONETARY
12 samples
· through 2024-09-18
Fed Rate Cycle Pivots — Cross-Asset Reaction Patterns
Bonds, equities, financials, and gold T+1 / T+5 / T+30 around hike, cut, QE, and taper decisions
When the Fed pivots, bonds, growth stocks, financials, and gold rarely behave the way the pre-meeting consensus had them priced. This page uses 12 historical pivots to size what your portfolio might face at the next decision.
COMMODITY SHOCK
10 samples
· through 2023-10-09
Oil Shocks — How Crude Reshapes the Tape
Energy stocks, the broad market, and inflation hedges after OPEC cuts, geopolitical disruptions, and demand collapses
Oil shocks pull energy stocks, airlines, consumer names, and Treasuries in different directions at the same time. We catalogued 10 historical shocks so you can quantify what your portfolio is likely to do when crude moves.
GEO POLITICAL
10 samples
· through 2024-05-14
US-China Tariff Escalation — Asymmetric Sector Reactions
Semis, China-internet, industrials, and ag commodities after past trade-war, sanctions, and export-control moves
New tariffs or export controls hit semis, China-internet ADRs, industrials, and ag commodities in markedly different ways. Here are 10 historical escalations sized so you can see what your portfolio is likely to do next round.
EARNINGS MACRO
7 samples
· through 2025-01-27
Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Shocks — How Far the Tremor Travels
QQQ, XLK, SPY, and defensives reacting to FAANG / NVDA / Meta earnings surprises
When a single mega-cap tech name blows out earnings, QQQ and XLK move together as expected — but SPY holders often misjudge the size of the spillover. We took 7 historical extreme prints and sized the contagion for you.
REGULATORY
7 samples
· through 2022-07-25
Global Pandemic Emergencies — Cross-Asset Map
Travel, staples, healthcare, gold, and long bonds T+1 / T+5 / T+30 around WHO PHEIC declarations and pandemic alerts
When a fresh public-health emergency hits the wires, travel names, staples, healthcare, gold, and long-duration Treasuries each turn at different speeds. We pulled 7 historical emergencies to quantify what your portfolio is likely to do this time.
REGULATORY
8 samples
· through 2023-05-01
Banking Crises — How Hard Financials, Bonds, and Gold React
Sector and safe-haven moves after Lehman, SVB, Credit Suisse, TARP-era shocks, and other systemic stress events
Banking shocks tend to move financials, Treasuries, gold, and risk assets harder than people expect in the moment. We assembled 8 historical bank shocks so you can size what your portfolio is positioned to absorb.
REGULATORY
7 samples
· through 2015-07-06
Sovereign Debt Crises — Currency, Rates, and Risk-Asset Cross-Currents
Dollar, long bonds, gold, and EU equities after eurozone, US-rating, and other sovereign credit events
Sovereign-credit events have a famously non-linear relationship with the dollar, long Treasuries, gold, and European equities. We assembled 7 historical episodes to quantify what your portfolio is realistically priced to do.
GEO POLITICAL
7 samples
· through 2024-11-06
US Election Uncertainty — Volatility, Dollar, and EM Reactions
How VIX, defensives, the dollar, and emerging markets moved through Bush v. Gore, Trump's election, Biden's withdrawal, and other late-cycle shocks
Late-stage US election uncertainty splits VIX, defensive equities, the dollar, and emerging markets onto very different paths. We pulled 7 historical episodes to quantify what your portfolio is likely to do next time.
REGULATORY
7 samples
· through 2024-10-09
Major Natural Disasters — Sector Reactions That Surprise Investors
Energy, insurance, building materials, and staples after major hurricanes, earthquakes, and nuclear incidents
After a major hurricane, earthquake, or nuclear incident, energy, insurance, building materials, and staples move in ways that often defy intuition. We catalogued 7 historical disasters to size what your portfolio is realistically positioned for.
REGULATORY
6 samples
· through 2024-01-29
China Property Crisis — Cross-Border Contagion Patterns
How FXI, EEM, copper, AUD, and CNY moved through Evergrande, Country Garden, and prior PRC property stress events
A flare-up in China property creates a complex contagion path through FXI, EEM, Hong Kong assets, copper, AUD, and the renminbi. We assembled 6 historical episodes to quantify how your portfolio has historically reacted.
GEO POLITICAL
5 samples
· through 2024-06-17
Russia-Ukraine War — Energy, Gold, and Risk-Sentiment Inflection Points
How crude, gold, European equities, and EM moved around invasion, SWIFT ban, mobilization, and Wagner mutiny
Energy, gold, European equities, and emerging markets each react non-linearly to escalation points in the Russia-Ukraine war. We assembled 5 historical inflection points so you can quantify the size of move your portfolio is likely to absorb.
EARNINGS MACRO
9 samples
· through 2024-06-10
Mega IPOs and Splits — Sector and Risk-Sentiment Spillover
How underwriter banks, related sectors, and broader risk appetite moved through Facebook, Alibaba, Uber, Coinbase, and Apple's split
A mega IPO or split — Facebook, Alibaba, Uber, Coinbase, Apple — pulls underwriter banks, related sectors, and the broader risk appetite around it. We pulled 9 historical episodes to quantify what your portfolio is statistically positioned for.